Free-agent outlook: J.T. Realmuto will be 35, but he remains as valuable as ever to the Phillies

J.T. Realmuto took a foul tip off his right hand and headed to an X-ray machine. Later, as the Phillies awaited results, their best pitcher put a potentially serious injury in context.

“We’re basically nothing,” Cristopher Sánchez said, “without him.”

It was Sept. 23, and Realmuto ended up missing one game with a bruise. The Phillies dodged a crisis in the final week of the regular season. Everyone exhaled.

Now, though, that lump in the Phillies’ collective throat has returned. Realmuto is a free agent; beginning Thursday, the iron-man catcher may sign with whichever team he wants.

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And his market promises to be fascinating.

Life without Realmuto is hard for the Phillies to imagine, even if maybe it shouldn’t be. He batted .257 with 12 homers and a .699 OPS this season and was 9% less productive than league average, according to OPS-plus, his worst mark since his rookie season in 2015.

Oh, and he will turn 35 in March.

But although Realmuto’s offense is diminished, his value behind the plate — and behind the scenes — is as high as ever, almost to the point of being unquantifiable.

It isn’t only that Realmuto still controls the running game as well as any catcher, with among the fastest pop times in the sport. It’s also how he actually runs a game.

At a time when baseball has a metric for almost everything, pitch-calling is the last incalculable frontier. A catcher’s ability to lead a pitching staff through nine innings is best measured by testimonials, and Phillies pitchers swear by Realmuto. Zack Wheeler, in particular, rarely shakes off anything that he calls. And Realmuto works with pitching coach Caleb Cotham to develop the daily plan for attacking an opposing lineup.

Realmuto’s value is also tied to his durability. This season, he started a career-high 132 games behind the plate. In the last 80 years, only five other catchers started that many games at age 34 or older:

“At the end of the season, we were talking and I really didn’t know how old he was,” catching coach Dusty Wathan told Phillies Extra, The Inquirer’s baseball podcast. “I said, ‘How old are you going to be next year?’ He said, ‘Well, I’m going to be 35.’ You would never know looking at him, talking to him, the way he acts, the way he runs, the way he takes care of himself, that he’s that age.”

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Like fellow free agent Kyle Schwarber, whose stature as a leader in the clubhouse will generate additive value on the market, Realmuto’s impact as an on-field quarterback and extreme workload could put him in higher demand than a typical fading hitter in his mid-30s.

“This guy is the most prepared guy I’ve ever been around as a catcher,“ said manager Rob Thomson, a former catcher. ”He will spend hours watching video, making up his own game plan and then matching it up with Caleb, talking with the pitchers. He’s got a great feel for in-game adjustments, when to go to the mound, when to change the pitch, when to change location.

“I can’t put a dollar sign on it, but it’s significant. He’s just that good.”

The Phillies also don’t have an in-house replacement.

Realmuto marched into free agency in 2020 with a goal of raising the salary bar for catchers. He signed a five-year, $115.5 million contract, a $23.1 million average that topped Joe Mauer’s previous catcher record by $100,000.

Five years later, the mark still stands.

It’s doubtful Realmuto will break his own record. Instead, the focal point might be the length of the term. Because in the four offseasons since Realmuto signed his landmark contract, only two free-agent catchers — Willson Contreras and Christian Vázquez — got deals of more than two years. And both were younger than Realmuto is now.

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There are only two instances of a catcher signing for more than two years at age 35 or older.

Molina might represent the best comp to Realmuto because his value to the Cardinals went beyond his output as a hitter, especially later in his career. But Molina’s extension wasn’t negotiated against the backdrop of free agency, in which other teams can influence the market.

Realmuto figures to appeal to a contending team that believes an experienced catcher could put it over the top. Take, for instance, the Padres, who were 27th in FanGraphs’ wins above replacement from their catchers (0.4).

The Phillies would likely have an easier time moving on from Realmuto if they had a succession plan.

Rafael Marchán moved into the backup role this season and batted .210 with a .587 OPS. It’s unfair to judge the 26-year-old based on 118 plate appearances. Maybe he would be more productive with additional playing time.

But Marchán struggled to stay healthy in the minors, never starting more than 68 games in a season.

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In a post-Realmuto world, the Phillies would have to find a veteran to at least split time with Marchán. And because the free-agent market is nearly bare (Victor Caratini and Danny Jansen are the best options), a trade would seem to be the likeliest route.

After moving on from almost everyone else at the deadline, the Twins could dangle catcher Ryan Jeffers, who has a 105 OPS-plus over the last two seasons and is controllable through next year. Adley Rutschman will draw attention after a rough season and with prospect Samuel Basallo in the wings, but the Orioles are unlikely to trade low.

Or the Phillies could attempt to reverse engineer the Brandon Marsh-for-Logan O’Hoppe deadline trade in 2022. O’Hoppe’s path to the majors was blocked then by Realmuto, just as Harry Ford’s is now in Seattle by Cal Raleigh and Dalton Rushing’s is by the Dodgers’ Will Smith.