Mets take aim at Phillies with Freddy Peralta and Bo Bichette, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves

Well, it finally happened.

The Mets made a move that makes sense.

Freddy Peralta is the kind of acquisition who can change expectations in a hurry. The Phillies know it as well as anybody. They’ve scored three runs in four starts against Peralta since 2022. Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, and Trea Turner are a combined 2-for-26 with 10 strikeouts against the veteran right-hander in that four-year stretch. They’ll go from facing him once or twice a year to potentially three or four times now that the Mets have shipped a couple of top-100 prospects to the Brewers in exchange for the 29-year-old Peralta, who had a 17-6 record last season, with a 2.70 ERA and 204 strikeouts in 176⅔ innings.

Wednesday’s trade is the second straight salvo the Mets have fired in the Phillies’ direction. The first was a gut-punch in the form of a three-year, $126 million contract signed by Bo Bichette. The Phillies thought they were about to land the former Blue Jays star on a seven-year, $200 million deal. Instead, the Mets unveiled their unique and devastating spin on the notion of addition by subtraction. Needless to say, it has been a rough week for the Phillies’ NL East odds.

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But let’s not go overboard here. While Major League Baseball doesn’t hand out trophies for sensibility, it also doesn’t hang banners for offseason champs. Offseasons are pretty much the only the thing Mets have won in the 40 years since the ’86 Amazin’s did their thing. They are going to need a lot of things to break right for that to change this year.

It should be almost impossible for a team to enter spring training with a projected $360-plus million payroll and Jorge Polanco batting cleanup. Yet that’s exactly where the Mets find themselves with three weeks to go before pitchers and catchers report. The Mets can argue all they want that Polanco is a much better value on a two-year, $40 million deal than Pete Alonso would have been on the five-year, $155 million deal that he signed with the Orioles. But Alonso has hit 72 home runs over the last two years, while Polanco has hit 72 over the last four.

And what about the five-hole? Right now, you’d probably pencil in Marcus Semien there. Which would be great, if “right now” was 2023. But Semien has looked nothing like the guy who finished third in MVP voting for the Rangers during their World Series campaign. In 2024 and 2025, the 35-year-old infielder slashed .234/.307/.379 for a .686 OPS that was almost exactly league average. Semien, whom the Mets acquired from Texas in a trade, is making $26 million this year.

Luis Robert Jr. could work his way up in the lineup if he hits like he did over his last 35 games last season (.819 OPS, six home runs, 140 plate appearances). Or, he could be a $20 million eight-hole hitter if he hits like he did over the last two seasons overall (.660 OPS, 28 home runs, 856 plate appearances).

There’s no question the Mets have succeeded in building themselves a different lineup. Francisco Lindor and Juan Soto are the only name-brand holdovers from a year ago. Brett Baty figures to start at designated hitter after the former top prospect rescued his career with a .311./.372/.500 batting line and seven home runs in his last 42 games. Mark Vientos can only hope to factor into the equation after a season in which he failed miserably to follow up on his 2024 breakout. Again, there are things that can break right. But a team’s win total usually has a negative correlation with the number of “ifs” it brings to spring training. And that likely would have been the case with the Mets, until Wednesday.

In Peralta and second-year sensation Nolan McLean, the Mets will have the kind of 1-2 punch atop their rotation that can carry a questionable lineup a long way. In two starts last year, McLean held the Phillies to one run and 14 baserunners in 13⅓ innings with 11 strikeouts. Combine his numbers with Peralta’s against Schwarber-Harper-Turner and you get 3-for-40 with 14 strikeouts. If Sean Manaea can get back to his 2024 form (3.47 ERA in 181⅔ innings) and Kodai Senga can stay healthy, the Mets could be a big problem for opposing lineups. And that’s assuming they don’t make another late splash (Framber Valdez, for instance).

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But, then, there’s that pesky little word again. The Mets may yet salvage their offseason and move the needle in a more decisive manner. For, now, Phillies fans shouldn’t be too hard on Dave Dombrowski’s roster. It’s still better than the Mets, for about 80% of the price.