Aaron Nola and then ...? What’s next for the Phillies as the offseason enters 2024
Will they pivot to another big free-agent arm? How will they address the bullpen? Moves are coming, but the Phillies are fine being patient.
Relighting the hot stove three days into the new year — and 45 days since the Phillies’ last major-league roster move ...
Don’t mistake inactivity for inaction. The Phillies met in person with coveted pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto on Dec. 14 and made a presentation that included a FaceTime from Bryce Harper. They offered a 12-year contract, according to an industry source, and though the money is unknown, it was characterized as “substantial” in relation to the Dodgers’ winning $325 million bid.
Regardless, it’s clear the Phillies were serious about adding an elite starter, even after shelling out $172 million to bring back Aaron Nola.
» READ MORE: The Phillies’ pursuit of Yoshinobu Yamamoto revealed their challenges in breaking through in Japan
Is it possible, then, that they will pivot to another big arm?
Maybe. But Yamamoto’s youth (he won’t turn 26 until August) made him a special case, so the Phillies took a massive swing. Fellow free agents Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery, by comparison, will pitch at age 31 this season, while prying away trade candidates Corbin Burnes, Shane Bieber, and, especially, Dylan Cease would require a prospect-heavy return.
So, while the Phillies likely will monitor the market, they’re expected to focus more on extension talks with ace Zack Wheeler and adding all-important depth on the roster’s margins.
And the latter takes time. Because spring training is six weeks away and free-agent starters are still holding out for the best chance to secure a rotation spot. With Wheeler, Nola, Ranger Suárez, Taijuan Walker, and Cristopher Sánchez, the Phillies don’t have one to offer.
“I’ve got a list of names and all that, and I’m hopeful that we’ll be able to add more, but right now, we’re not going to have much success in that regard,” president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said. “Eventually, once they get done with [pursuing] the promised spot in the rotation with another club, they can start looking and say, ‘Hey, maybe they don’t have a lot of depth over there. Maybe that’s an opportunity to go to triple A and be in that spot.’
“That’s what I’m hopeful will happen over time. Do I think [there are enough free agents available]? Yes. Will it shake out that way? You never really know.”
Last season, the Phillies got 899 innings from their starters, most in the National League. They were among only six teams in baseball with at least three pitchers (Nola, Wheeler, and Walker) who made 30 or more starts. But they still traded for Michael Lorenzen at the deadline and used a six-man rotation down the stretch, one reason they avoided long-term pitching injuries, according to club officials.
» READ MORE: How much will it cost the Phillies to keep Zack Wheeler beyond 2024?
The Braves, meanwhile, essentially ran out of starting pitching in the postseason. Charlie Morton battled a finger injury and Max Fried a blister; Bryce Elder hit the second-half rookie wall. And the Phillies ousted them in the divisional round for a second consecutive year.
Atlanta sought to address the issue by taking a run at Nola in free agency before trading last weekend for Chris Sale. And while Sale has a long injury history since 2018, he joins Spencer Strider, Fried, Morton, Elder, and 21-year-old AJ Smith-Shawver as rotation options. Ian Anderson is expected back from Tommy John surgery after the All-Star break, and the Braves think reliever Reynaldo López has the stuff to start again.
Dombrowski listed Nick Nelson and Dylan Covey as the Phillies’ top depth options. Matt Strahm can start in a pinch, but the team prefers to keep him in the bullpen. Prized prospect Mick Abel might be ready to graduate from triple A later in the season.
“Depth isn’t really as important until you get to the season, so we’ve got a lot of time until we start at the end of March,” Dombrowski said. “It’s not going to happen now.”
Besides, there may be a more pressing need in the bullpen anyway.
Craig Kimbrel’s one-year stint with the Phillies will be remembered for momentum-turning meltdowns in consecutive games in Arizona in the middle of the NL Championship Series. But he did have a 3.26 ERA in 69 regular-season innings, mostly in high-leverage situations.
Do the Phillies have internal options to absorb that responsibility?
“We think we do if we’re healthy,” Dombrowski said. “One name that we think of, we think [Orion] Kerkering is ready to pitch at the big-league level. Now, we’re not anointing him. He has to still earn it. But we think he has a chance to contribute to a lot of those innings.”
» READ MORE: How the Phillies closed the seven-year, $172 million megadeal with Aaron Nola
The Phillies did entrust Kerkering with a prominent bullpen role in the playoffs, even though he didn’t make his major-league debut until Sept. 24. It was a mixed bag. He dominated through his first four postseason appearances, then struggled in his last three.
It’s evident that the Phillies believe Kerkering will be a key piece in the bullpen. Last month, Dombrowski said he rejected a trade offer that involved Kerkering.
“I said, ‘You know, I don’t really want to do that,’ ” Dombrowski said. “Because if we’re going to have all these star players, we also have to have some young players that are not making a lot of money.”
But the Phillies replaced Héctor Neris with Corey Knebel two years ago and David Robertson with Kimbrel last winter, moves that suggest they will add one veteran reliever before spring training, preferably a right-hander on a one-year contract.
Maybe a reunion with Neris? The 34-year-old righty had a 1.71 ERA in 71 appearances for the Astros last season. Robert Stephenson enjoyed a breakthrough last season once the Rays tweaked his cutter. He worked with pitching coach Caleb Cotham with the Reds in 2019-20. There are other options on the reliever market.
The Phillies tapped into a deep bullpen last season. But two potential options, Connor Brogdon and Andrew Bellatti, are out of options and can’t be sent to the minors without exposure to waivers. Maybe they can be packaged in a trade.
» READ MORE: The Phillies’ brass have a Johan Rojas question, but they’ve faced a similar dilemma before
Whatever the case, pitching depth might supersede anything on the position-player side, where the Phillies remain hopeful that Johan Rojas can reclaim the center-field job and are cognizant of not signing an outfielder who would block his path.
One thing is clear: Additional moves are coming. Despite not making a move since re-signing Nola on Nov. 19, the Phillies haven’t put down their pencils.
“We’re not at that point at all,” Dombrowski said. “It’s just taking a little longer. No, we’re not just satisfied. We want to get better.”