Follow the money to find the secret to the 2026 Phillies roster
The story of this offseason was the money the Phillies spent in previous offseasons. The incumbents are the ones who need to do the heavy lifting.
When it comes to the 2026 Phillies, the three most meaningful words in the human language ring true once again.
Follow the money.
Read the menu from right to left. There, you will find the players who will make the Phillies the team they need to be. Or, you will find the players who will deserve the blame if the Phillies prove not to be that team.
Zack Wheeler is making $42 million, which is the same amount the Mets will pay newcomer Bo Bichette. Kyle Schwarber is making $30 million, the same amount the Cubs will pay newcomer Alex Bregman. Aaron Nola is making $24.5 million, which is about $2.5 million less than the Blue Jays gave Dylan Cease and right in line with what the Padres gave Michael King. Bryce Harper and Trea Turner are combining to make about $52.5 million, which is about $5 million less than the Dodgers have agreed to pay Kyle Tucker over the next four years.
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Ok, that last one is absurd. But the Phillies are one of 29 teams who can’t compare to the Dodgers.
Anywhere east of Tinseltown, there is no room for excuses. The Phillies are on track to arrive at opening day with a payroll that is $21 million higher than the Braves, $52 million higher than the Cubs, $63 million higher than the Padres, and a whopping $157 million higher than the Brewers. They are a near lock to finish the season with one of the top five payrolls in the game. No, they aren’t the Dodgers ($387 million) or Mets ($363 million). But neither are the Yankees, these days ($304 million).
The criticism must feel good to John Middleton, in a strange way. Two decades ago, he was part of an ownership consortium that oversaw one of MLB’s most underfunded rosters relative to market size/potential. His power play into a majority stake was motivated in large part by his desire to operate like a true economic powerhouse. The fan base has been thrilled to adjust its expectations upward. The way folks are questioning Middleton’s billionaire bona fides, you’d think he spent the offseason picking up shifts in the gig economy. It’s worth stating for the record that the Phillies have signed $227 million worth of new guaranteed contracts at an average annual value of $66 million, or nearly 25% of their payroll.
I’m not licking any boots here. I understand that the criticism levied toward the Phillies is as much a function of makeup as money. The majority of the Phillies’ outlays this offseason have gone to incumbents, with Schwarber re-signing for five years and $150 million and J.T. Realmuto for three years and $45 million. The same was true last offseason, and the season before, when Nola and Wheeler both signed nine-figure deals. After two straight postseason one-and-dones, the impression is of a poker player doubling down while drawing dead.
One of the difficult parts of being a personnel executive is that a fan base is rarely careful what it wishes for. Middleton’s partiality to the familiar makes plenty of sense when you consider the Phillies’ recent history. The last time they bowed to the wishes of those chanting, “Blow it up,” the result was a lost decade. Creative destruction is a fine idea. But it better be creative.
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The Schwarber and Realmuto contracts are perfect examples. Would the Phillies have really been better off if they’d given Schwarber’s money to Bregman or Bichette? You can certainly make the argument. If the Phillies had non-tendered Alec Bohm and let Schwarber walk, they could have signed Bregman to play third base and then given Eugenio Suarez the one-year, $15 million deal he signed with the Reds to play designated hitter. Maybe then they don’t feel the need to pay $10 million for Adolis Garcia’s right-handed power bat and instead sign Luis Arraez (one-year, $12 million) or Ryan O’Hearn (two years, $29 million) and convince Harper to return to the outfield. Or maybe they sign Josh Naylor to play first base and let Realmuto walk.
So, yeah, there were options. Bregman, Suarez and Naylor will earn about $65 million in AAV in 2026. Schwarber, Realmuto, Bohm and Garcia will earn about $65 million in AAV in 2026.
Would the Phillies have been better off?
Maybe. But, man, there’s a whole lot of risk baked into maybe. Enough risk that it’s worth stepping back and asking what they’d be trying to accomplish. Neither combination is going to stack up to the Dodgers on its own. Just so happens the first combination has helped the Phillies improve their win total in each of the last four years while also winning 96 games and a division title in 2025. Neither combination will mean much if Harper takes another step backward, or if Wheeler doesn’t return from his blood clot as the same pitcher he was, or if Nola is the same pitcher he was last season, or if Turner is still something less than a guy who deserved $300-plus million.
The story of this offseason was the money the Phillies spent in previous offseasons. The incumbents are the ones who need to do the heavy lifting. That’s how it should be when the incumbents’ wallets are as heavy as the Phillies’. There is plenty of potential upside in the form of Justin Crawford, Andrew Painter, Aidan Miller, Gabriel Rincones Jr., even Otto Kemp. The floor will be set by the known commodities. This year more than ever, Harper and Co. need to make themselves known.