Hope for a new Phillies offense lies with Aidan Miller, Otto Kemp, Justin Crawford

To get back to the World Series, the Phillies are going to need the equivalent of one of these names:

They might need the equivalent of one of these names:

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Represented within those names are seven of the last 14 league champions. Each of the hitters listed played a significant role in his team’s run to the World Series. None of them entered the season with more than 300 career plate appearances. All but Barger and Moreno were rookies.

For the last three years, we’ve talked an awful lot about free agency and the trade market when problem-solving the Phillies’ inability to replicate their 2022 World Series run. In recent years, the players who have pushed teams over the hump have often been of the entry-level variety. It’s easy to see why when you look at the Phillies.

In a lot of ways, Dave Dombrowski and Rob Thomson have defied the odds over the last four years. Only four teams in the majors have won more regular-season games than the Phillies since the start of the 2022 season. Only one has won more postseason games. The Phillies stand alone among that group in their nearly total reliance on players developed by other teams.

Since 2022, Alec Bohm and Bryson Stott are the Phillies’ only homegrown hitters with at least 700 plate appearances. Neither has come close to equaling the production the Dodgers have gotten from Will Smith, whom they drafted at No. 32 overall in 2016. In Ronald Acuña Jr. and Austin Riley, the Braves have two homegrown hitters with career OPS+ equal to or better than Smith’s 125. The Astros have had a remarkable seven homegrown players go at least 1,000 plate appearances with an above-average OPS+ since 2022. Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Alvarez, and Kyle Tucker have all been superstars.

The Yankees haven’t had as much success as the Astros, Braves, or Dodgers, but the last two seasons have seen the emergence of Ben Rice (117 OPS+ in 708 PAs) to go with long-timer Aaron Judge. The Brewers, tied with the Phillies with 368 regular-season wins since 2022, have Jackson Chourio (115 OPS+ in 1,162 PAs). Behind them, the Padres have a star in Fernando Tatis Jr. (121 OPS+ in 1,764 PAs) and a budding one in Jackson Merrill (120 OPS+ in 1,076 PAs). The Mariners have produced superstars Cal Raleigh and Julio Rodriguez. The Orioles: Gunnar Henderson, Anthony Santander, and Adley Rutschman. The Blue Jays: Vlad Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette.

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It’s awfully hard to build an elite offense without a single player giving you elite production at an entry-level salary. Everyone wants to know why the Phillies don’t score runs commensurate with their aggregate wages. Well, start there.

The players who will determine the Phillies’ fate in 2026 aren’t the guys with the fat paychecks. In order to level up to something different, the lineup needs something unforeseen. Justin Crawford, Aidan Miller, even Otto Kemp are the guys most likely to provide it. If none of them do, maybe Dante Nori or Aroon Escobar can force their hand. Prospects will break your heart. But so will hoping for a bounce-back season from Adolis García.

What’s encouraging, even exciting, is that the Phillies seem to understand what they need. The biggest disappointment of spring training was Miller’s inability to get on the field. He has a real opportunity to play himself into a quick promotion. But he will enter the season with no clear timeline for return after missing the whole spring with a back injury. The health concerns complicate what should have been the obvious decision to throw caution to the wind with Miller’s development this season. It also puts more pressure on Crawford and Kemp to step up.

Crawford, 22, needs no introduction after a solid spring that saw him lock down a roster spot — and presumably a starting job in center field. But Kemp, 26, has been a bit of an afterthought this offseason after hitting .234/.298/.411 in 218 plate appearances last season. It shouldn’t surprise anybody if he ends up as the Phillies’ version of Barger, who hit 21 home runs with a .756 OPS for the Blue Jays after opening the season in the minors and then joining the club in a part-time role.

It’s easy to forget Kemp finished the season with eight extra-base hits in his last 57 plate appearances after rejoining the team from the minors. On the season, his 12.1% barrel rate ranked behind only Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper. He also ranked third behind them in average bat speed, according to Statcast. It’s difficult to see a path to 500-plus plate appearances for Kemp. But a lot depends on how capably he can play corner outfield.

Miller, 21, remains the biggest reason for hope. If he can get healthy, and stay healthy, his time could come quick. The Tigers are considering an opening-day roster spot for top prospect Kevin McGonigle, the Delco product whom Detroit selected eight picks after Miller in 2023. The Cubs found room on the roster for Moisés Ballesteros, who is seven months older than Miller. Milwaukee’s Chourio is three months older than Miller. San Diego’s Merrill turns 23 in April. The Mets lineup is projected to include 23-year-old Carson Benge, drafted No. 19 overall in 2024. In St. Louis, 23-year-old J.J. Wetherholt could be leading off less than two years after he was drafted at No. 7 overall.

The Phillies can’t afford to play it safe with Miller. Nor with any of their other young unknowns. They need something to break right for them. The first step is giving it an opportunity to happen.