Is a bullpen arm now the Phillies’ biggest need at the trade deadline? Depends on how they feel about one man.

How much does Dave Dombrowski believe in his best acquisition of the offseason?

By several metrics, Jonathan Bowlan has been one of the most productive relievers in the majors over the last 2½ months. Since May 3, he ranks among the top 15 in the majors in the following categories:

And then there is the most important category. Heading into Sunday, only three pitchers carried a lower ERA than the 0.86 that Bowlan had posted in his last 21 outings. All three are household names: Robert Suarez (Braves), Luke Weaver (Mets) and Mason Miller (Padres).

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That trio has logged a ton of high-leverage innings over the years. The question Dombrowski must ask himself: Can Bowlan do the same?

The answer should play a big role in the Phillies’ trade deadline strategy. The back of their bullpen has been leaking some serious oil as of late. Since June 1, Orion Kerkering, Brad Keller, and Jose Alvarado have combined to allow 18 of 42 batters to reach base in high-leverage situations in the seventh, eighth or ninth inning. Of those 18 baserunners, nine have scored.

At this point, Kerkering shouldn’t be a serious consideration when the Phillies are projecting the top of their postseason depth chart. The 25-year-old righty’s struggles in pressure situations was a recurring theme even before last October’s meltdown in Game 4 at Dodger Stadium. Over the last two regular seasons, Kerkering has 37 strikeouts against 22 walks and hit-by-pitches in high-leverage situations. In the last two weeks, he has entered two late-game situations and then proceeded to walk three batters. There is nothing Kerkering can do between now and the trade deadline that should make the Phillies more comfortable with him high on the pecking order behind Jhoan Duran.

Alvarado is fast approaching that point. The veteran lefty entered Sunday having allowed runs in eight of his last 19 outings, and at least two runs in six of them. Only two relievers in the majors had pitched as many innings as him with a higher ERA. The numbers are a little bit confusing. His 28.5 strikeout rate ranks 29th out of 171 qualified relievers. Although his walk rate is slightly worse than league average, it is markedly better than any that he posted during his prime years of 2021-24 (8.9% this season vs. a minimum of 10.5% previously). His fielding independent metrics are better than they’ve been since 2023.

Even taking all of that into consideration, Alvarado is a dramatically different pitcher than he was in 2022 and 2023, when he stuck out 37% of his batters with a 2.14 FIP (3.38 this season). It’s fine to consider him a wild card vs. writing him out of the picture completely. But he won’t be anything more than a wild card before the trade deadline.

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Keller? Even without the forearm issue, the Phillies haven’t seen much to make them comfortable heading into a postseason as the primary bridge to Duran. Opposing hitters have posted a whopping .856 OPS against him in high-leverage situations. In an ideal world, the 30-year-old is a sixth- or seventh-inning arm come October.

Which brings us back to Bowlan. Acquired in an offseason trade that sent Matt Strahm to Kansas City, Bowlan appears to have elbowed his way into his manager’s circle of trust. On Saturday night, Don Mattingly turned to Bowlan with two on and nobody out in the bottom of the eighth inning to protect a 4-1 lead. After hitting his first batter with a pitch to load the bases, Bowlan got Spencer Torkelson to ground into a double play. He escaped the inning with just the one run scored, walking Riley Greene before getting Eduardo Valencia to ground out.

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It wasn’t exactly the cleanest audition. But maybe that counts for something. This was a big-boy spot. Middle of the order, a trio of young power hitters, two men already on base. To hit a batter and walk a batter and only allow one run at least shows a little bit of intestinal fortitude.

If Mattingly is going to make Bowlan his primary eighth-inning arm for the foreseeable future, then he is doing the right thing. At 6-foot-6 and 240 pounds, the 29-year-old righty sure looks the part. But that is still very much a hypothetical. Bowlan was predominantly a middle-innings guy during his three years in Kansas City. He isn’t a classic strikeout arm, whatever the overall numbers say this year. He has seven of them in 28 high-leverage plate appearances this season, compared with four walks. Again, though, the sample size is small. The Phillies would be wise to get a longer look at him.

In the meantime, there really isn’t a question about the trade deadline and the bullpen. The Phillies need to do everything they can to address it. A lot of people seem to want to frame it as an either/or, with regard to their clear holes in the outfield and/or from the right side of the plate. That’s not the right way to look at it. After this latest virtuoso performance by the top two pitchers in the Phillies’ rotation, and with Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber hitting like MVP candidates, Dombrowski can’t afford to pick and choose which holes he fills this July. Last year, the Blue Jays acquired Louis Varland and Ty France from the Twins in a deadline deal. The Phillies themselves landed Duran and Harrison Bader. They can and should be thinking quantity.

The real question right now is quality. Do the Phillies need an eighth-inning version of Duran? Or can they get by with a Varland type? A lot depends on how they feel about Bowlan. Because, right now, he looks like the only viable option.

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Ryan Howard was a three-time All-Star and champion of the 2006 Home Run Derby in his legendary run with the Phillies. With the baseball world coming together in Philadelphia for the 96th All-Star Game, Howard sat down with Phillies Extra to discuss his All-Star memories, his expectations for a Home Run Derby at Citizens Bank Park, his outlook on the Phillies' season, Kyle Schwarber's chances of breaking his single-season franchise mark for homers, and more. Watch here.

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