Phillies trade deadline preview: Bullpen is becoming a top priority, and maybe the Mets can provide answers

Less than three weeks before baseball’s trade deadline, one thing stands out to Phillies owner John Middleton.

“There’s very few teams,” he said, “who are out of it.”

Indeed, when the dust cleared from the All-Star break (replaced by smoke from the Canada wildfires), 23 of 30 teams were either in playoff position or within four games of a wild card. The conditions may shift before Aug. 3, but the forecast is calling for a seller’s market, with demand far outpacing supply.

(How’s that for punching a hole in commissioner Rob Manfred’s assertion that MLB is rife with competitive imbalance that only a salary cap can solve? But we digress.)

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A group of teams are poised to buy (Dodgers, Brewers, Braves, Yankees, Rays, Cubs, Phillies) and a handful should sell (Rockies, Angels, Royals, Mets, Giants). But most are in the middle. The Red Sox, for instance, looked a few weeks ago like they’d be open for business. Then, they won 14 of 16 games, including nine in a row before the break.

“It’s really hard to trade away players if you’re one of those teams and say, ‘I’m going to give up and try to get some younger players,’” Middleton said on The Inquirer’s Phillies Extra podcast. “Those teams are going to be pushing to add players to bridge that gap and get into the playoffs.”

There’s another wrinkle to this deadline: Nobody knows what the rules will be beyond 2026.

With the collective bargaining agreement set to expire on Dec. 1, and the owners and players at odds over the fundamental structure of the sport’s economic system, club executives must operate at the deadline without knowing if a cap on salaries is coming.

The Phillies have nine players under contract in 2027 for roughly $218 million, as calculated for the luxury tax. Middleton isn’t among the owners on MLB’s labor policy committee and said he hasn’t been informed if the proposed cap would take effect next season.

“That’s all going to be a matter of negotiation,“ he said.

In that case, doesn’t president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski have to account for the possibility before he trades for a player who is under contract beyond this year?

“I think you have to be aware of it, you have to ask questions about it,” Middleton said. “But at the end of the day, because the range of outcomes is so wide, I think you have to just do what, in your judgment, is in your best interest.

» READ MORE: What makes Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber such unique stars? We asked each about the other.

“Philosophically, Dave and I approach these things as maximizing our ability to win today with maximizing our ability to win in the future. ... That remains our philosophical construct, and we’re going to kind of move down that path.”

The Phillies continue to pursue an elusive World Series with a core of thirtysomethings who aren’t getting younger. They came out of the All-Star break with the fifth-best record in the National League (54-43) — and tied with the Brewers for the best mark in baseball since April 28, when Don Mattingly took over as manager.

But there’s also a Jenga quality to the roster. With a collection of stars at the top and little depth below them, it feels like the removal of one piece could leave the entire thing teetering on the brink of collapse.

“I think you know what we need, what we’re good at and what we’re not good at right now,” Bryce Harper said during the All-Star break. “John wants to win. He’s going to put all his chips in where he needs to, but he’s going to be smart about our future as well.

“Obviously I like the future of our organization and we need our future, but you’ve got to try to win as well. Whatever that looks like, I think Dave’s going to do a great job — or I hope he does — and get the things that we need.”

Let’s dive in, then, on the Phillies’ three biggest needs — and where they could look to fill them.

Late-inning meltdowns torpedoed the Phillies in the 2023 and 2024 postseasons, so they traded two touted prospects at the deadline last year for Jhoan Duran.

And the Durantula has dominated.

But what’s the point of having one of the best closers in baseball if the bridge to him is rickety?

The bullpen vaulted to the top of the Phillies’ priority list this week after they lost Brad Keller for the season with a torn elbow ligament. Orion Kerkering and Jonathan Bowlan are the remaining righty setup options; lefty José Alvarado has pitched better than his ERA (6.82), but not nearly good enough.

Maybe the Mets, of all teams, can help.

» READ MORE: ‘The game is where it needs to be’: Bryce Harper wants compromise (and no salary cap) to keep sport thriving

Amid a calamitous season, New York’s bullpen has been an area of strength. Need a lefty? The Mets can offer A.J. Minter (1.42 ERA entering the weekend) or 38-year-old Brooks Raley (2.02), both on expiring contracts. They’re expected to listen on right-hander Huascar Brazobán (2.70), too, although he’s under club control through 2029.

Luke Weaver might bring back the best return for the Mets. He signed a two-year, $22 million contract — identical to Keller’s deal — last winter and has a 2.03 ERA.

The Phillies and Mets aren’t often trade partners. Juan Samuel-for-Lenny Dykstra (and Roger McDowell) in 1989 was a long time ago. But there are a few recent examples. In 2018 and 2019, the Phillies sent minor leaguers to the Mets for Asdrúbal Cabrera and Jason Vargas, respectively.

Another team to watch: the Padres. They lost 11 of 16 games before the break and slid to 3½ games out of a playoff spot. And they open the second half with 10 games on the road, seven of which are in Atlanta and Miami.

It isn’t general manager A.J. Preller’s style to sell. But if the Padres keep plummeting, walk-year lefty Adrián Morejón could be a logical chip. The hard-throwing 27-year-old has a 3.42 ERA and 58 strikeouts in 50 innings.

Stop us if this sounds familiar: The Phillies are looking for a righty-hitting outfielder.

At each of the last two deadlines, Dombrowski traded for an outfielder who bats from the right side: Austin Hays in 2024 and Harrison Bader in 2025. Then, last winter, the Phillies signed Adolis García.

García, like Keller, is out for the season. And like Keller, his absence left a void, even though he didn’t make the impact the Phillies hoped in the middle of the lineup.

» READ MORE: The Phillies still need a right-handed bat. Let’s take an early dive into some options before the trade deadline.

Brandon Marsh is presently the only regular outfielder. Justin Crawford and Gabriel Rincones Jr., both rookies, start against right-handed pitchers; Derek Hill and infielder-turned-outfielder Edmundo Sosa face lefties.

It isn’t ideal.

Entering the weekend, the Phillies were tied for the majors’ worst on-base percentage (.302), including a .271 mark from the right side of the plate. It’s difficult to score runs consistently when so much of the offense depends on Kyle Schwarber and Harper going deep.

“You want to have a club that does everything — hits the ball out of the ballpark, gets on base, doesn’t strike out, puts the ball in play," Mattingly said. “You’re never going to be perfect in who you are.”

But the Phillies can be better about reaching base at a higher clip.

One player who makes sense: Taylor Ward.

Ward, 32, entered the weekend with six homers for the Orioles after averaging 24 in the last four seasons for the Angels. But he has swapped power for on-base ability, reaching at a .387 clip, seventh in the American League.

The Orioles were 46-51, but only two games out of a wild card. Their first nine games out of the break are against the Astros, Red Sox, and Braves, a stretch that could determine whether they buy or sell.

The Phillies are 40-14 in games started by Cristopher Sánchez, Zack Wheeler, and Jesús Luzardo.

In all other games, they are 14-30.

Three starters is mostly sufficient for the postseason, but getting there requires at least five. Aaron Nola is pitching better with a curveball- and changeup-heavy gameplan. But Andrew Painter has gotten mixed results in triple A, leaving Alan Rangel as the No. 5 starter.

Here again, pay attention to the Mets.

Clay Holmes has been out since May with a fractured right fibula. But interim manager Andy Green told reporters Thursday that the 33-year-old righty is “inching closer” to a minor-league assignment.

» READ MORE: Phillies reliever Brad Keller expected to miss rest of the season with torn elbow ligament

Opposing scouts will surely be watching.

Because Holmes had a 2.39 ERA in nine starts before the injury and a 3.53 mark in 31 starts last season. And in the three years before that, he was an excellent late-inning reliever, with a 2.85 ERA and 74 saves for the Yankees.

Holmes has a $12 million player option for next season. The Mets are open to discussing an extension, according to SNY.TV. But they could also trade Holmes, then try to sign him back in the offseason. Because there’s going to be substantial interest in a pitcher who can deepen a contender’s rotation down the stretch before shifting into the bullpen for the playoffs.

Sounds like just what the Phillies need.