The velocity was again lacking in Zack Wheeler’s third rehab start. But don’t count him out.

ALLENTOWN — The only way to talk about who Zack Wheeler is right now is to first acknowledge who he was.

He was an outlier, both in talent, and in physiology.

He was an old man doing young man things, and he was doing them better than most young men. In 2025, he was one of 19 starting pitchers with an average fastball velocity of at least 96 miles per hour. Jacob deGrom, at age 37, was the only member of that group older than the 35-year-old Wheeler. None of the other 17 were older than 31. Besides deGrom, the next hardest-throwing pitcher older than Wheeler was 36-year-old Chris Sale, who averaged 94.8 mph on his heater.

The important thing to note is that Wheeler is at an age where a lot of pitchers have already started to lose some of their juice. deGrom averaged 99.2 mph on his fastball at 33 years old, 98.9 at 34, 98.7 at 35, and 97.3 at 36. He didn’t have thoracic outlet surgery like Wheeler did late last season. He just began to act his age.

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On Wednesday night, Wheeler had plenty of reasons to be proud as he walked off a mound to a healthy applause from the sparse crowd at Coca-Cola Park. He’d just held a lineup of Nationals minor leaguers to one run in 4⅓ innings, throwing 61 pitches in what everyone hopes will be his penultimate rehab outing before rejoining the Phillies rotation. He struck out six of the 17 batters he faced and allowed his only baserunners by way of two infield hits, a bloop RBI single, a walk, and a hit batter. He commanded the strike zone, threw a number of filthy off-speed pitches, and felt no different physically than he had in previous years’ spring trainings.

“I felt good,” Wheeler said. “Still not all the way there, but felt a lot better than the last two, so heading in the right direction.”

But there is still one big unknown. It is a question that every pitcher confronts at a certain point, one that he must banish to the deepest reaches of his competitive mind.

Will the velocity come back?

If it doesn’t, can Wheeler be the pitcher he was at 95-96 mph while throwing 92-93? How effective will he be if he no longer has a four-seamer that misses bats more often than any other starter’s in the majors?

Wheeler didn’t miss any bats with his four-seamer on Wednesday. He threw 18 of them, according to an unofficial count. Nine of them were fouled off. A 10th was put into play. Three were called strikes. Five were balls. The ratios were similar on his sinker. Both pitches topped out just shy of 94 mph but hovered around 92 by the end of his outing.

“It tends to be there right now,” Wheeler said. “I would like it a little higher, obviously. But it’s cold, still working my way back. Like we said, you kind of got to be patient and don’t overdo it but maybe figure out some little things that can get you there.”

Will he get there?

It will be the defining question in his fourth rehab outing, which has yet to be officially scheduled and could be impacted by some less-than-ideal road trips scheduled at double-A Reading and triple-A Lehigh Valley. After that, the assumption is that Wheeler will at least have proven himself healthy and prepared enough to return to a major league mound. But this is still spring training for him. The Phillies shouldn’t want to rush him if they think there is more he can unlock.

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The margins are awfully thin when it comes to swing-and-miss fastballs. Another tick or two on the radar gun, and some of those fouls becomes swings-and-misses. On the flip side, some of those fouls might become barrels after another trip through the order.

However Wheeler progresses, his outing on Wednesday was hardly a portent of doom. The command and crispness of his off-speed stuff suggests a pitcher that can survive or even thrive without his usual fastball.

“If the fastball isn’t going to be there, you have to figure out another way to get outs,” Wheeler said. “You have to move the ball around. You’ve really got to nail that down if the velo isn’t going to be there. There was a year or two ago when I came in throwing about this speed and it was tough. But you have to take pride in being a big league pitcher and figure things out maybe a different way from normal.”

Don’t count him out.