I'm not big on making election predictions because:
A) They're always wrong, not just by me but by everybody.
B) There's too much horserace coverage already.
That said, there's one thing that seems impossible to avoid about 32 hours before the polls FINALLY close here in Pa. And that is this, that there is virtually no way that Barack Obama can win here. I don't know the exact margin of victory, but a Hillary Clinton triumph seems certain.
You can say that the polls -- and they seem to come out by the minute -- are inconsistent, but they seem clear on one thing: Obama has never topped 45 percent in any of the surveys. And we've seen in the vast majority of primary states so far that last minute undecideds tend to break for Clinton.
Why that? It's complicated. Race probably is a factor -- people who don't really want to back Obama but won't make it official until the privacy of a voting booth -- but so is the fact that Obama is the lesser known quantity of the two, and if he hasn't swayed people over seven weeks he probably won't change their minds tomorrow, either.
And I think a Clinton win tomorrow of more than 5 points -- less certain, but likely -- moves everyone onto North Carolina, and Indiana, and West Virginia, and Kentucky, and Oregon, and Montana, and South Dakota, and Puerto Rico, and Denver...
Yeeeaahhhhhhh!!!!!
It's a quagmire. Giggity, giggity!
UPDATE: Having said all that, here's a fascinating (first-ever) blog post from my former next-door neighbor out in the critical Pa. suburbs -- a lifelong Clinton fan and supporter (and she's got the pictures to prove it) who's pulling the level for Obama tomorrow. Hmmmmm.
Anyone else have a prediction for tomorrow? Make it here.