WASHINGTON -- What are the chances of a Republican knocking off Sen. Bob Casey (D., Pa.) next year?
One prognosticator's early estimate: not so great.
Kyle Kondik of Sabato's Crystal Ball, an elections analysis site, projects the outcome of the 2018 Pennsylvania Senate race as "likely Democratic," despite President Trump's surprising win in the Keystone State last year.
Casey is among a raft of Senate Democrats up for reelection in states the president won, a situation that might normally put him in a tough spot. But, Kondik writes, he and other Democrats may benefit from the historical midterm backlash that tends to hit presidents in the first election after they begin their tenure, and from Trump's historically low approval ratings for the start of his term.
Casey also has shown resiliency, Kondik notes, pointing out that the Democrat has won multiple statewide races and drew more Pennsylvania votes than Barack Obama in 2012.
Of course, it's very, very early (emphasis on very) to try to decipher what the political landscape may look like next year. Much could shift. But what seems less likely to change — and is perhaps the most telling part of the early analysis — is that national Republicans have lots of reason to look elsewhere first as they plot their 2018 strategy, no matter the overall political environment, rather than focusing on Casey.
Kondik lists at least eight other Senate Democrats who appear more vulnerable than Casey, including five in states that Trump won by at least 18 percentage points. That means Republicans are likely to put their time, money, and energy there first. Add in Pennsylvania's expensive campaign costs — the money for an ad in the Philadelphia market could go a whole lot farther in, say, Montana or West Virginia — and there are additional reasons for the GOP to decide to invest elsewhere. That's in stark contrast to last year, when the Pennsylvania race between Republican Sen. Pat Toomey and Democrat Katie McGinty was considered one of the top four in the country and the money never stopped flowing.
The fact that Rep. Pat Meehan, the Delaware County Republican, passed on a chance to challenge Casey has already suggested to some campaign analysts that Republicans are reading the signs and don't like the early picture.
Which is not to say that Casey is going to have it easy. He's still in a swing state where his party just lost the presidential race.
And at least one Republican seems to like his chances. State Rep. Rick Saccone of Allegheny County has filed paperwork to run against Casey and is planning a formal announcement in Harrisburg on Monday. Others are said to be mulling their chances.
But if they are looking for help from the outside groups that fuel so much political spending, they may not be at the front of the line.