WASHINGTON – Franklin & Marshall's new poll on the Pennsylvania U.S. Senate race has bad news all around.
Disapproval of the incumbent Republican, Sen. Pat Toomey, was the highest this poll has ever recorded.
But the Democratic race remains a muddle, with the party's three hopefuls still largely unknown. Joe Sestak leads the field with 21 percent support among Democrats, the poll found. Katie McGinty, the party insiders' choice, had 12 percent, despite big endorsements and big spending, while Braddock Mayor John Fetterman stood at 8 percent.
It all means the race is wide open. Toomey is neither beloved nor detested, and no Democrat has broken through to build a groundswell of support: 56 percent of the Democrats surveyed said they don't know who they'll back, leaving room for any of the primary contenders to make up ground, if they can build momentum. (A fourth Democrat, Joe Vodvarka, a semiretired spring manufacturer, was not included in the poll.)
The poll surveyed 985 Pennsylvania registered voters, including 486 Democrats, 371 Republicans, and 128 Independents between Feb. 13-21. The overall margin of error was 3.1 percent, though it was 4.4. percent when applied to the smaller size for questions focused on the Democratic primary.
Of course, it's just a snapshot with two months to go before the April 26 primary, and far longer to November's Election Day. But it's one of the few non-partisan, public looks at the state of the race.
Here are five things the poll shows us:
-- Sestak Defiant:
Joe Sestak runs unconventional races, but even his critics say not to count him out. His 21 percent support among Democrats is up four points from a month ago, the biggest gain of any of the primary candidates.
He's doing it on a shoestring budget (though he leads the Democratic pack in fund-raising), and is relying on a dogged schedule. The former admiral and Congressman from Delaware County Congressman went on a seven-stop tour of the state laying out his domestic policy in January and, this week, did a seven-event swing touting his 36-page national security plan.
-- McGinty Lagging:
McGinty, a Philadelphia native and Gov. Wolf's former chief-of-staff, spent $691,000 in the last quarter of 2015 – nearly four times what Sestak did – but has little to show for it so far, the poll numbers suggest (to be fair, her spending was not on television, the medium that would move the dial the most). Her 12 percent support among Democrats surveyed was about the same as in January.
And despite having big-name backing from the likes of Wolf, former Gov. Ed Rendell and the Senate's top Democrat, Harry Reid, McGinty trailed Sestak in campaign cash by $1.4 million as of the latest filings.
There is still time, especially if McGinty can get TV ads running, but some operatives watching the race worry that warning signs are mounting.
-- Fetterman's Window:
Fetterman has cut an intriguing figure, with his mechanics' shirt, goatee and tattoos accenting his story of civic activism in Braddock. In a year of outsider candidates, many insiders wondered if he might catch fire, and his team boasts of enthusiastic crowd and social media hits.
But his fund-raising has been anemic and his poll numbers are stagnant since January. This survey indicates the mayor has not yet turned public attention into the tangible gains that could move him from wild card to potential Senator.
-- Toomey tumbles:
Toomey spent $4.2 million last year, but his negatives grew: 33 percent of voters view him unfavorably, including 21 percent who see him "strongly unfavorably," the poll found. That's up from 23 percent total unfavorable rating in March.
On the other side, 29 percent view him favorably (9 percent strongly so).
The poll began the day Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia died -- and coincided with a week of intense scrutiny on Toomey for his stand refusing to consider anyone Obama might nominate as a replacement. Fact-checkers questioned his initial explanation that he was abiding by tradition, his reasoning shifted and editorial boards lashed him.
Democrats have vowed to keep up the pressure all year (they held a press conference outside the Supreme Court Thursday), hoping the fight motivates their voters and knocks Toomey off balance. At the very least, it has added an element to the race that the methodical incumbent could not have planned for.
A Pew Research Center poll this week found that 56 percent of Americans believe the Senate should hold hearings and a vote, against 38 percent who say they should wait for the next president.
-- TV Time:
Both parties remain confident about a campaign that could help decide control of the Senate.
Republicans say Toomey has smartly positioned himself for a tough race in a moderate state, and has a huge money lead while Democrats slog out their primary.
Democrats point to their nearly 1 million person voter registration advantage – an edge that is most felt in presidential election years – and their hopes that a Donald Trump nomination could damage other Republicans on the ballot.
With all the candidates largely unknown – 39 percent of voters couldn't offer an opinion on Toomey, even after six years in office – there is still plenty of room to shape the race.
"It could be won by the first candidate who gets up on television," Franklin & Marshall pollster Terry Madonna told the Inquirer's Chris Brennan.
As if on cue, a GOP-aligned non-profit launched a $1 million ad buy Thursday promoting some of Toomey's work in the Senate. Looking ahead at who has the money to blitz the airwaves, Toomey had $9.6 million on hand as of Dec. 31, and a Super PAC led by a close ally, Prosperity for Pennsylvania, was sitting on $1.1 million more.
The Democrats in Pennsylvania have yet to launch sustained TV campaigns, even as challengers in Ohio and Illinois go on the air. None have pulled in huge money – though sympathetic outside groups could help them as well.
Sestak has the most resources to do it, with $2.6 million on hand as of Dec. 31.
Rendell, McGinty's campaign chairman, recently pleaded for air cover from EMILY's List, a group that backs Democratic women candidates. Fetterman has made a few targeted ad buys during key primary nights, but had just $132,000 on hand to fuel his campaign.
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