The U.S. economy has about a 1-in-4 chance of falling into recession (a "significant decline," see below) over the next six months, reports John Silvia, chief economist at Wells Fargo & Co., after sifting employment data, stock market valuations and economic output reports.

A recession is still unlikely, but more probable (less unlikely?) than at any other time since the 2008-09 Great Recession, Silvia adds. "It is not wise to entirely dismiss recession risk." 

Silivia uses the National Bureau of Economic Research Inc. definition: "A recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales."