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Eagles' probabilities for 2014 NFL playoffs

Currently, the Eagles are 9-3 in first place in the NFC East and hold the third seed in the NFC, despite being tied for the best record in the conference.

Currently, the 9-3 Eagles are in first place in the NFC East and hold the third seed in the NFC, despite being tied for the best record in the conference.

It's looking more and more likely that the Eagles will earn a playoff berth with four games remaining. Their remaining schedule looks like this:

Sunday, Dec. 7 vs. Seattle Seahawks, 4:25 p.m.

Sunday, Dec. 14 vs. Dallas Cowboys, 8:30 p.m.

Saturday, Dec. 20 at Washington Redskins, 4:30 p.m.

Sunday, Dec. 28 at New York Giants, 1 p.m.

According to makeNFLplayoffs.com, the Eagles have a 86.5% chance of making the playoffs and a 77.0% chance to win the NFC East.

However, the website goes even further into the numbers. Here's three questions:

1. How many wins do the Eagles need to be guaranteed a playoff spot?

Three wins would clinch a berth, but two wins also offer a 99.8% chance of a spot. There is also a 2.4% probability of making the playoffs if the Eagles lose all of their remaining regular-season games. Here's the complete breakdown:

3 or 4 wins….100%

2 wins……….99.8%

1 win………...70.1%

No wins……...2.4%

2. What outcome can the Eagles expect in the first round of the playoffs?

According to the numbers, don't expect the Eagles to be playing a game. Chip Kelly's team has a 39.5% chance to have a bye with a 13.5% chance of missing the playoffs. If the Eagles do play a game in the first round, the most likely opponent will be the Cowboys (11.5%). Check out the list:

First-round bye…………....39.5%

Miss playoffs………………13.5%

Dallas Cowboys…………..11.5%

Detroit Lions……………….10.6%

Seattle Seahawks…………7.1%

Green Bay Packers………..5.7%

San Francisco 49ers………5.0%

Arizona Cardinals………….2.6%

Atlanta Falcons…………….2.2%

New Orleans Saints……….1.6%

*The rest of the NFC…….< 0.5%

Tampa Bay Buccaneers….impossible

*Chicago Bears, St. Louis Rams, Carolina Panthers and Minnesota Vikings

3. What seed will the Eagles be?

The Eagles currently hold the third seed so it makes sense their most-probable seed is the three-seed (37.5%). However, if you combine the likelihood for the first and second seeds, you get the aforementioned 39.5 chance for a first-round bye. The Eagles still have a 17.3% chance for home-field advantage. The breakdown:

One seed………17.3%

Two seed………22.2%

Three seed…….37.5%

Four seed……..impossible

Five seed……...4.0%

Six seed……….5.6%

Miss playoffs….13.5%

[www.makeNFLplayoffs.com]