#OnDeck: The state of the Phillies at the dawn of 2015

Less than a month ago, the first domino had yet to fall.

Less than 3 months ago, the company line still insisted that the Phillies were going to focus all of their resources on putting a contending team on the field in 2015.

Every public utterance by Ruben Amaro Jr. was answered with a thunderous refrain of palms striking foreheads across the Delaware Valley.

Now? New year, new Phillies. One of Charlie Manuel's favorite sayings consisted of two words: Know thyself. For the Phillies, 2015 appears to be the long-awaited Year of Self-Awareness.

The first step toward recovery is admitting you have a problem, but it is not the only step, nor is it the hardest. Look back at the teams that followed the Phillies' trajectory and you'll see what is in store.

The Rockies have had four straight losing seasons. The A's went five straight without a winning season from 2007-11. The Twins are riding a string of four straight losing seasons. The Cubs are riding five straight. The Astros, six straight.

You can argue that the Phillies have more money than all of those teams had at their disposal. In nominal terms, you would be correct. But in real terms, relative to the rest of the sport, and when considering the purchasing power of those dollars, it is difficult to argue that they are in much better shape than the Cubs or Astros were when they Wile E. Coyote'd off their respective cliffs.

So ... 5 years, minimum.

That's what the Phillies are looking at. After last season's debacle, they are 3 years in. Currently, Vegas has them at 250-to-1 to win the World Series, the worst odds in the majors, along with the Astros. Best-case scenario, they are back on the upswing by 2017, with a realistic shot at contending in 2018.

The good news is that the course Pat Gillick and Amaro have charted thus far appears to be a sensible one. The first step of that course is to rebuild the organization's pitching depth. That's the course the A's followed under the guidance of Billy Beane. When Oakland returned to contention in 2012, its rotation included Tommy Milone (acquired in 2011 for Gio Gonzalez), Jarrod Parker (acquired in 2011 for Trevor Cahill and Craig Breslow), A.J. Griffin (drafted in 2010) and Tyson Ross (drafted in 2008). Its offense featured a couple of first-round draft picks in Jemile Weeks and Cliff Pennington, but the rest were pieced together via free agency and trade: Chris Carter, Brandon Inge, Yoenis Cespedes, Coco Crisp, Josh Reddick, Jonny Gomes, Seth Smith and Brandon Moss.

In Zach Eflin, Tom Windle and Ben Lively, the Phillies have added a trio of potential Vance Worley/J.A. Happ/Kyle Kendrick/David Buchanan types — not the kind of guys that will anchor a World Series team, but the kind of guys who can provide the supporting cast for the kind of guys that will anchor a World Series team. Along with Aaron Nola and Jesse Biddle, the Phillies at least have a fighting chance of fielding a rotation a couple of years from now that will give them a fighting chance on most days of the schedule.

Of course, the work has only just begun. Player development is a war of attrition, a numbers game. The Phillies need to continue to diversify their portfolio, because the probability of any of these assets paying major league dividends is nowhere close to 1. Chase Utley and Cole Hamels should be their next priorities, Utley before Hamels. There has been a lot of talk about Ryan Howard, but, at this point, the best move might to give him the first couple of months of the season at first base while letting Maikel Franco season at Triple A. The worst-case scenario is that the Phillies give Howard away for no return in June instead of January. The best-case scenario is that he has a hot April and May and that they can at least salvage a sliver of his salary or a marginal prospect.

As we start 2015, then, the state of the Phillies is this: The journey will be a long one, but at least it has begun.