Morrow, Masterson, Anderson heading potential pitching targets for Phillies

While the Phillies' decision to sign Jerome Williams to a $2.5 million deal for 2015 elicited some groans, the move is the kind that the fanbase will need to get used to if it hopes to maintain its sanity through the offseason.

The simple truth is that the Phillies need arms who are capable of logging innings at the major league level next season, and that meant paying some guaranteed money to a replacement-level player, because, at this point, the team doesn't even have any replacement-level players in the minor league system.

In a perfect world, Williams spends the 2015 season as a sixth-starter type, moving from the bullpen to fill the inevitable voids in the rotation that occur over the course of a 162-game schedule.

Now, where do they go from here?

There are no bargains when it comes to the starting pitching market. That was the lesson of last offseason, when it cost at least $4 million just to get Gavin Floyd and Roberto Hernandez into camp, and it took multi-year deals with significant guaranteed dollars to sign high-risk, high-ceiling players like Ubaldo Jimenez and Phil Hughes. The ideal deals for the Phillies are those like the one-year, $5 million contract Edison Volquez inked with the Pirates and the one-year, $6 million contract Jason Hammel landed with the Cubs.

If last year was any indication — and it usually is — the Phillies will have to take the chance of paying a lot of money for a complete bust if they hope to land a pitcher with any amount of upside. The case-in-point is Josh Johnson, who signed a one-year, $8 million deal with the Padres last offseason and did not throw a pitch. You have to think Johnson's deal is the kind that the agents for Brandon Morrow, Brett Anderson and Justin Masterson will be looking for now that they are on the open market. Of all of the pitchers on the market, those are the three that make the most sense for the Phillies, who are in a position to take on a decent amount of risk as they look toward the future. Morrow has battled injuries over the last three seasons, and the Blue Jays recently declined a $10 million option after seeing him make just 16 starts in 2013-14. But Morrow throws hard and misses bats, and his early years in Seattle suggest that he could remake himself into a back-of-the-bullpen reliever if he is unable to stick in a rotation.

A Phillies/Morrow pairing makes some sense when you look at the rest of the market. A quick process of elimination considerably narrows the field of prospective signees:

Too expensive: LHP Jon Lester, RHP Max Scherzer, RHP James Shields, RHP Ervin Santana, LHP Francisco Liriano

Overvalued: RHP Edinson Volquez, RHP Jason Hammel, RHP Brandon McCarthy

Contender bound: RHP Jake Peavy, RHP Aaron Harang

On the way out: RHP Josh Beckett, RHP Ryan Dempster, RHP A.J. Burnett, LHP Johan Santana, RHP Hiroki Kuroda, RHP Brad Penny

The Kendricks: RHP Kyle Kendrick, RHP Kevin Correia, RHP Roberto Hernandez, RHP Chris Young

Beyond Morrow, that leaves us with two groups of pitchers that have any amount of upside: the young(ish) guys, and the old(ish) guys.

I. The Young(ish) Guys

Justin Masterson: Masterson's fastball velocity dipped considerably this season, which is not a good thing for a guy who throws the pitch 80 percent of the time. He apparently struggled with some injuries that could be to blame for the velocity and performance issues. A groundball rate of 58.2 percent with a 4.50 FIP compared with a 5.88 ERA make him one of the more intriguing bounce-back candidates on the market. But given his pedigree and relative youth (he'll be 30 years old next season), he'll have no shortage of interest as long as the medicals check out. While Masterson would make sense for the Phillies, he seems destined to land in a situation more conducive to a bounce back season. Think the Dodgers or the Padres or the Mets. As we've seen with Josh Johnson and Phil Hughes, it can take a surprisingly high guarantee to land a pitcher like Masterson.

Brett Anderson: He has one of the highest ceilings and one of the lowest floors of all of the potential bounce back candidates. He posted a 61 percent groundball rate, 2.91 ERA, 2.99 FIP in 43 1/3 innings over eight starts with the Rockies, but missed time with a fractured finger and then underwent back surgery. Like Masterson, Anderson is probably going to be looking for a place where he can pitch his way into a multi-year deal next offseason, and Citizens Bank Park isn't the most conducive of venues to wage such a campaign. At 27 years old, he certainly makes sense for the Phillies, but I'm not sure there will be a fit.

Franklin Morales: Morales has had plenty of opportunity to show his worth as a starter, and the results have been less than satisfying: a 4.87 ERA in 47 starts. His arm plays up better as a reliever, where he has a 4.51 ERA with an average of 8.3 strikeouts-per-nine in 186 appearances. While his home/road splits do not suggest that he was a victim of Coors Field, it is hard to ignore the 3.90 ERA, 8.6 K/9, 3.8 BB/9 and 1.1 HR/9 he posted in three years with the Red Sox. Walks have always been Morales' problem, and his fastball velocity has dropped from the 94.5 MPH range in 2010-12 to 91.3 MPH last year. He relied a lot less on his fastball last year. Combined with the drop in velocity, it raises a red flag. But he is only 29 years old, meaning he still has some upside. He is the kind of player a team like the Phillies can take a chance on, particularly with his experience coming out o the bullpen.

Gavin Floyd: Floyd has started just 14 games over the last two seasons, but he will be just 32 years old next season. That, combined with the success he has had when healthy, makes him an intriguing buy-low candidate this offseason. In nine starts with the Braves in 2014, he averaged six innings per start with a 2.65 ERA and solid rate stats of 7.5 K/9, 2.2 BB/9 and 1.0 HR/9. As of late August, the veteran righty was six weeks away from throwing and on track to be fully healthy for spring training after a fractured elbow ended his season.

II. The Old(ish) Guys

Scott Baker: A flyball pitcher with a lengthy injury history, Baker does have a track record of solid production, having started 134 games with a 3.98 ERA, 7.4 K/9, 2.1 BB/9 and 1.1 HR/9 for the Twins from 2007-11. He missed most of 2012 and 2013 while recovering from elbow surgery, then missed three weeks in September of 2014 with triceps tendonitis. At 33 years old, a return to form isn't out of the question. His fastball velocity rebounded a tick in 2014, moving from 88.4 miles per hour to 89.3 MPH, still shy of the 91 MPH where he sat before surgery. But he throws strikes and misses more bats than Kyle Kendrick.

Paul Maholm: He is a groundball pitcher — 54.4 percent groundball rate in 70 2/3 innings in 2014 — has some bounce back potential at 33 years old.

Wandy Rodriguez: At 36 years old and coming off 18 starts in two seasons due to knee and elbow injuries, he is a huge health risk. But he is left handed and can throw strikes, so if he can be had on a minor league deal, he would make some sense.

Chris Capuano: Made 12 starts for the Yankees after spending the first half of the season in the Red Sox bullpen. Posted a 4.25 ERA, 7.5 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 1.0 HR/9. Will be 36 years old.

Colby Lewis: In his last 13 starts for the Rangers this season, Lewis posted a 3.86 ERA with 60 strikeouts and 22 walks in 86 1/3 innings. This, after a disastrous start that saw him enter the All-Star Break with a 6.54 ERA. He is a flyball pitcher who will be 35 years old next season, but he had two-and-a-half solid years for the Rangers before elbow surgery, and now has one full season under his belt after returning.

Ryan Vogelsong: If I told you that one pitcher in camp in Clearwater in 2010 would enter the current offseason with two World Series rings, you probably would not have picked Vogelsong. Yet the Kutztown product is coming off a four-year resurgence with the Giants in which he was a member of two title winning teams. That said, he will be 38 years old in July and he struggled down the stretch, with a 4.91 ERA in his last eight starts of the regular season, and then allowed nine runs in 12 1/3 innings in three postseason starts. The upside is limited for a team like the Phillies.

III. Conclusion

Because of the potential markets for Masterson and Anderson, guys like Morrow, Morales and Floyd seem like more probably options for the Phillies. They can probably have their pick of the old(ish) guys if they are willing to guarantee even a low amount of money (see Hernandez and Floyd from last season). I'd expect the Phillies to bring in at least two more arms with the hope of adding them to Cole Hamels, David Buchanan and Cliff Lee (cross your fingers) for the start of the season.

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