#OnDeck: Three Things to Monitor This Spring

Last week, the good folks at Baseball Prospectus shared their preliminary preseason calculations with the rest of the world, forecasting the final standings for the 2015 regular season.

The Phillies, not surprisingly, will finish in last place in the National League East. Baseball Prospectus has Ryne Sandberg's rebuilding Phils in line for a 70-92 season, bad enough for the worst record in all of baseball.

So please temper your excitement that Phillies pitchers and catchers will hold their first official workout in sunny Clearwater, Fla., two weeks from tomorrow.

No, there isn't any reason for Phils fans to curb their enthusiasm, because that would require the presence of enthusiasm. But at least it has not reached the level of apathy just yet; there is some interest.

We'll have a better idea of just how much interest 4 weeks from Friday, when the Phillies host the Yankees at Bright House Field. Until then, here are three items yours truly is interested in following this spring.

LONE SURVIVOR

After Kyle Kendrick departed for Denver, taking a one-year deal with the Rockies, only Cole Hamels, Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and Carlos Ruiz remain from the roster of the 2008 Phillies. Howard, Hamels and Jonathan Papelbon have been heavily rumored to be on the move this winter.

As they say, where there's smoke there must be a fire sale. What are the odds that that trio - Howard, Hamels and Papelbon - all break camp with the team in two months and appear on the Opening Day roster?

Papelbon is probably the most likely to go, only because there is reported interest from other teams (Milwaukee chief among them) and general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. told CSNPhilly.com earlier this week that talks were "still alive." So until free agents Francisco Rodriguez and Rafael Soriano find new homes (Rodriguez has spent the majority of the last 4 seasons with Milwaukee), you can't count a Papelbon trade out.

Howard is probably the most likely to stay, given his salary and declining skills; you cannot give a player away unless someone actually wants to take him. The problem with him staying, however, is that it affects the rebuilding process.

If Howard is playing regularly, the young trio of Maikel Franco, Darin Ruf and Cody Asche cannot be, and that's even with Asche possibly getting playing time in left field, too. The Phillies obviously can't waste any more time (especially with Ruf); they need to see what they have in their young players.

The Phillies' ask for Hamels is high, as it should be. As Opening Day draws closer, perhaps a potential suitor steps up their pursuit. We reported the Hamels' hometown Padres' interest two months ago. The Dodgers (who would lose Zack Greinke to free agency after this season) should be in go-for-it mode with the chance to form a rotation for the ages in an attempt to reach their first World Series since 1988. The Cardinals, Cubs and Red Sox still all make sense, too. Boston, which visits Citizens Bank Park on Opening Day in two months, lacks a true No.1 starter, but doesn't lack the prospects it would take to acquire one in a trade.

WALK LIKE A PRODUCTIVE BASEBALL PLAYER

Just like the Phillies predicted finish in the standings, it probably won't come to the surprise of anyone that Baseball Prospectus also has the team's futile offense in line for a .295 on-base percentage.

The Phillies have not been down with OBP for some time. The team OBP has dropped for five straight years, from .334 in 2009 down to .302 (fifth worst in baseball) last season.

Baseball Prospectus has the Phillies in line for a ghastly .661 team OPS in 2015.

Thankfully for Phillies fans, the team's brain trust is well aware of the offensive numbers in the last half decade. But those same fans have good reason to be wary, too, since the same people in charge were the ones who have overseen that offensive decline.

At the Winter Meetings, Amaro said their would be "significant" changes made this spring in the way hitters prepare for the upcoming season. But exactly how that's going to be implemented remains to be seen.

Recently, manager Ryne Sandberg said there would be concentration on "putting the bat on the ball, cutting down on strikeouts … better base running." Former manager Charlie Manuel, who will work in camp as a hitting instructor, said that the team "(doesn't) talk about walks, we talk about getting good balls to hit. And if you don't get good balls to hit, then you will have walks."

It's time the Phillies talk about walks. Sure, the Giants, Orioles and Royals all finished with fewer walks than the Phillies last season - the American League Champion Royals had the fewest in baseball - but all of those teams were significantly better than the Phillies in other areas to make up for it.

If the Phillies are undergoing a serious rebuild, it needs to begin with a serious commitment to a new hitting philosophy as much as beginning with new players in new positions.

THREE'S COMPANY

We've already covered the trio of veterans who may or may not be on the move. How about three players who will enter camp with the most to prove?

While an argument can surely be made for many a player (including Freddy Galvis, David Buchanan, Ruf, Franco, etc.), one man's list of the three most intriguing names: Domonic Brown, Tommy Joseph and Phillippe Aumont.

Brown will be shifting back to right field this spring. How he handles his defense (he's always been subpar, whether he's in right or left field) won't matter much if he doesn't hit.

If Brown, 27, can finally find consistency and show the promise with his bat that once made him one of baseball's top prospects, no one will worry quite as much about his defensive shortcomings. If he resembles the player who struggled mightily in 2014 (.235, .634 OPS, 10 home runs), Brown's best position won't be right or left field but on the bench (or on his way to another team).

Joseph and Aumont, for no fault of their own, represent two of worst moves of the Amaro administration. Both came back in lopsided trades; Aumont is the last man standing of the trio of prospects that came back for Cliff Lee, Joseph was and is the leading piece in the return for Hunter Pence.

Joseph, 23, showed promise last spring, hitting 5 home runs in his first 17 games at Double-A Reading. But after May 9, he was limited to six games after suffering a wrist injury. He also has a history of concussions injuries, which could be his future as a catcher in jeopardy. The Phillies need him to have a healthy 2015, beginning with a healthy spring training.

Aumont, 26, is a long shot to prosper in Philadelphia. He appeared in just 5 major league games last season and allowed 12 runs in those games. He's only included on this list because he's out of options. If Aumont fails to make the 25-man major league roster out of spring training, Amaro will have to designate the pitcher for assignment, and thus, penning the final chapter on one of the worst trades in Phillies history.