Is a budget deal near in Harrisburg?
"In negotiations you sometimes have to pivot from the deal you want to the deal you can get — and make that deal yours."
With the Pennsylvania budget four months overdue, is compromise still possible in Harrisburg?
Novak: We might be closer than some people think. Republican leaders in the House feel that they have anywhere from 15 to 17 Democrats willing to vote on a legislatively created budget. That would probably be enough to override a veto.
Rooney: What Alan describes is the fundamental problem in Harrisburg. It represents more of the same. Unfortunately, where we are now doesn't reflect a better budget. Rather, it's about making a parochial deal with a handful of Democrats while leaving the rest of Pennsylvania behind. Somebody gets a shiny new fire truck and the rest of Pennsylvania gets hosed. I still believe that there is a pathway through negotiation that will do better for everyone.
Novak: In negotiations you sometimes have to pivot from the deal you want to the deal you can get — and make that deal yours. Gov. Wolf needs to redefine success on his terms. There will not be a personal income tax or sales tax increase. But, maybe the deal is with liquor reform, pension reform, a little bit of a severance tax and a little more on education. Then the governor can say, "I wanted a better deal — but this isn't a bad deal and it's the best deal we can get." Otherwise, he could be handed a veto-proof budget with enough Democrat votes that it looks like he was left out.
Rooney: They are running out of time to do the "big deal." I do agree that the personal income tax increase is a nonstarter. But we can still fund our schools, do right by people fighting to make it in this economy, and do right by all Pennsylvanians with a reduction in property taxes. But we can't do right if a handful of Democrats capitulate and fall prey to the smaller deals that involve some people getting something at the expense of everybody else.
Novak: A deal has to happen by the end of October or early November. Otherwise, we get into a bizarre world where they are still trying to figure out this year's budget at the same time that planning for next year's budget starts happening.
Rooney: People in the capital believe that people outside the capital pay a lot more attention to what is going on than they actually do. They're not! People aren't like that. And yet, this idea is a real impediment to getting things done. Ultimately people pay attention to the lack of the ability to get anything done. That's why people hate government.
Novak: I think people impacted by this, whether they are schools or not-for-profits, are paying attention. No legislator wants to go home and answer the questions. They want to get it done and that's part of what's going to entice them into voting "yes" on this legislatively driven, veto-proof budget.
Rooney: A lot of folks think these votes — either individually or collectively — are the be all and end all of their career. They're not! People in Pennsylvania want solutions. They want compromise. They want something different from the way we've done it before. Everybody's got to step off a cliff. If they do, not only will they accomplish good things for Pennsylvania, I guarantee they will be rewarded with reelection because the people of Pennsylvania are in a different place than the people in the \[Harrisburg\] bubble.
Novak: I like the "big deal" concept. This governor has the best opportunity to promote a big deal if he approaches the negotiation motivated by the art of the possible. If the end result is liquor privatization to help fund schools and pension reform without raising the personal income tax, I can see the governor saying he got a good deal under tough circumstances and came out with something that puts the state in a better place.
Rooney: They don't realize it, but legislators can withstand a couple tough votes. Here's why: Tough votes are meaningful. If voters see things — like more funding for education — come to fruition, they will forgive a vote for something they may not wholeheartedly agree with because there is a much greater good to be served. One thing is for certain — no one will be served well by cutting individual deals to craft another budget that kicks the can down the road. Next year is an election year, and it will just be more of the same, only longer, harder, and nastier. This is our last best opportunity for the foreseeable future.
Alan Novak (alan@rooneynovak.com) is a former chairman of the Republican Party of Pennsylvania and T.J. Rooney (tjrooney@rooneynovak.com) is a former chairman of the Pennsylvania Democratic Party. They are principals of RooneyNovak Group Bipartisan Solutions and appear together regularly to discuss political issues and policy debates.