Over 30 years ago Bill Gray became one of the nation's first meteorologists to issue hurricane seasonal forecasts months in advance.
In the years since private and government meteorologists have been using key components of his methodology in their outlooks, which is one reason why they looks so similar from year to year.
In the outlook issued last week for the season that begins June 1, Gray and Colorado State University associate Phil Klotzbach called for a profoundly quiet season – almost as quiet as Gray's planned exit.
The forecast included a statement from Gray announcing that he was passing the baton to Klotzbach and that this would be his last year of active forecasting.
Gray has been a true pioneer in this business. He was one of the first in our awareness to postulate that conditions in the Sahel region of Africa are critical to tropical-storm formation and that hurricane activity fluctuates in 25- to 40-year cycles of "active" and lull periods.
The period of record has supported him. He has said that the most-recent active period began in 1995, ending a lull that began around 1970.
As we noted in an article last June, Penn State's Michael Mann is among those who believe that the Atlantic Basin is in a permanent active period, the result of greenhouse warming – the gentleness of recent seasons notwithstanding.
The Mann hypothesis might well prove to be correct, but Klotzbach doesn't think so.
In fact, Klotzbach said that some indications are that the latest active period is winding down.
We suspect that millions of residents and property owners along the Gulf and Atlantic Coasts are rooting for Klotzabch.
Stay tuned.