Snowy look to outlooks
Snow and cold continue to dominate the winter forecasts.
Anyone serious about weather won't care about this, but the Old Farmer's Almanac is calling for snow and cold in the Philadelphia region.
What is of perhaps more significant is that its outlook is in line with those posted so far from some more conventional neighborhoods of the meteorological community.
AccuWeather went on record two weeks ago as calling for a snowy winter in the Northeast, with above-normal snowfall around here.
Dave Tolleris at WxRisk.com sees below-normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation for both January and February.
In its update Tuesday, the Commodity Weather Group goes with below-normal temperatures for January and February.
And later in the day, Tony Gigi, a lead forecaster at the National Weather Service in Mount Holly, said that the signs are pointing to a cold and snowy winter.
Among them are sea-surface conditions in the Pacific and the extensive autumn snow cover in Eurasia.
Since 1967, Gigi pointed out, Eurasian snow cover has been above average for both September and October a total of 14 times.
In nine of the ensuing winters, snowfall was above average in Philadelphia, and of seven "blockbuster" snowstorms, five occurred in those seasons.
Paradoxically, the consensus among dynamical computer models is for a warmer-than-normal winter.
We would point out that last year the models also were calling for winter on the mild side – as were most of the forecasters.
One almost-sure thing to watch for would be an early-season heavy snowfall, said Gigi.
In the 11 seasons in which a 6-inch snow fell before Jan. 1, at least one more big one occurred later in the winter; two more in five of those seasons.