With warmer-than-usual waters brewing in the tropical Pacific, and cooler waters in the tropical Atlantic, the hurricane season is looking like a quiet one.
In updating its outlook Thursday morning, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said that chances are 90 percent that hurricane activity in the Atlantic Basin, which includes the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico, will be below normal.
That's the highest confidence level in the 18 years NOAA has been doing this.
On Tuesday, the forecast team at Colorado State University watered down an already mild outlook.
From their June forecast, William Gray and Philip Klotzbach lowered the numbers of hurricanes from 3, to 2. The average is 6. One of those, they said, would be major, with winds of 111 m.p.h. or better; the average is 3.
NOAA uses a range rather than a specific number. It sees 1 to 4 hurricanes, down from 3 to 6 in the May outlook, with 1, or maybe none, becoming major.
A major factor is the warming of surface waters in the Pacific, an El Nino. During El Nino, the interaction of the warm surface waters and the overlying air generates strong winds from the west that can snuff out incipient hurricanes in the Atlantic.