To borrow a concept from the great Lewis Carroll, this is "brillig" time in the tropical Pacific, where Sea-Surface Temperatures (SSTs) over a continent-size patch of ocean are approaching extreme levels.
In other words, a powerful El Niño is brewing, and the Climate Prediction Center says it is almost certain to last through the winter. This week, the climate center reported that in the critical El Niño region, SSTs were running better than 5 degrees Fahrenheit above normal.
Glenn Schwartz wrote a fine piece about all this back in August, and while it's way, way early to draw any conclusions about the winter, when surface waters are cooking so much overlying atmosphere, mayhem is certainly possible.
(For those unfamiliar with Jabberwocky, "brillig" was "the time when you begin broiling things for dinner," according to Humpty-Dumpty.)
Lewis Carroll notwithstanding, you can book a 100 percent chance that the annual winter outlooks will lean heavily on El Niño.
AccuWeather issued its early call Wednesday morning, and it sees drought-easing rains in California, and storminess in the Southeast, a reliable El Niño signature.
For Philadelphia and the Northeast, it predicts quite a mild start to winter with perhaps a winter rally at the end – again El Niño-like.
But Paul Pastelok, the long-range forecaster, said in the discussion it's possible winter will take a holiday. "We just don't know exactly yet whether or not we're going to see the pattern turn cold and snowy," he said.
As the climate center notes on its "impacts" map, El Niño tends to energize the southern branch of the jet stream.
That favors storms forming in the Gulf, some of which can make that hard left turn up the East Coast.
During the last mega-El Niño, during the winter of 1997-98, that happened with frequency, ripping sand off the Jersey beaches.
Should that happen again, we don't have to remind Jersey Shore residents and property owners that the beaches right now aren't in good shape.
On the plus side, if AccuWeather's early call is correct, winter fuel bills will be a lot more benign than last winter's.