Employers created enough jobs in June to keep consumers spending and the U.S. economy expanding into the second half of the year, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the June employment data tomorrow.
The economists provided a median estimate that businesses created 120,000 jobs last month, following a 157,000 gain in jobs in May.
More jobs and bigger paychecks are helping Americans cope with higher gasoline prices and falling home values, easing concerns that the almost six-year economic expansion will come to a halt.
"The economy continues to move forward," said John Silvia, chief economist at Wachovia Corp., of Charlotte, N.C. "You're not going to get any increase in the unemployment rate at all" in coming months.
The economists surveyed forecast a median unemployment rate in June of 4.5 percent. It would be the third straight month at that level. The rate fell to 4.4 percent in March and October, the lowest since 2001.
The projected increase in jobs compares with an average gain of 133,000 a month so far this year. Earnings per hour probably rose 0.3 percent on average last month, matching the increase in May.
"We see signs that the economy is going to remain strong," Jonathan Tisch, cochairman of Loews Corp., said in an interview last week. He cited trips taken for business and pleasure as an indicator.
"Across the country, people are still traveling," Tisch said. Loews' subsidiaries, in addition to insurance companies and cigarette-makers, include hotel chains. The company operates the Loews Philadelphia Hotel on Market Street.
Another sign of strong travel came from United Airlines. The world's second-biggest carrier said in June that it planned to hire pilots this year for the first time since 2001 as it added international flights. The Chicago-based carrier plans to add as many as 100 pilots in addition to recalls of furloughed employees.
Moreover, more than 41 million Americans will travel at least 50 miles from their homes some time this week - a new record for Independence Day travel - despite heightened security because of failed car bombings in Britain.
Most travelers, 34.7 million, are expected to load up their cars and hit the road for extended getaways. And about 4.7 million will traipse through airports.
"We're seeing many, many people take the week off and go for a long week [of vacation]," said Beth Mosher, a spokeswoman for AAA Chicago.
The Fed's policymaking Federal Open Market Committee last week predicted a "moderate" pace of expansion would continue in coming quarters. It also maintained a concern that the low jobless rate would sustain inflation pressures and voted to hold the target for its benchmark overnight lending rate at 5.25 percent for an eighth straight meeting.
But a drop in orders to factories during May raised some concern that business investment may not rebound as much as some forecast, economists said.
The Commerce Department reported Tuesday that orders fell 0.5 percent in May. They were up 0.5 percent in April.
Not all economists are convinced the drop spells less corporate spending.
"It's volatile data, and the underlying trend has been improving," said Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at Maria Fiorini Ramirez Inc., of New York. "I'm not ready to jump off the bridge."