Here's another excuse to pig out this Thanksgiving: Turkey prices are down.
After suffering from an outbreak of bird flu in 2015, American turkey producers have come back in a big way. Low feed costs are helping U.S. output to climb 7 percent this year to a record 6.02 billion pounds, government data show. Rising supplies mean that wholesale frozen birds are fetching about 11 percent less than this time last year.
The production boom is good news for Thanksgiving feasters, since recent history suggests Americans will eat about 46 million of the birds when they celebrate the holiday on Thursday, according to the National Turkey Federation. With poultry prices falling, the average bill to feed 10 people for Thanksgiving is set to drop about 0.5 percent from 2015, when the expense reached a record high. Declines are also being driven by falling costs for pumpkin-pie mix and milk, according to an annual survey from American Farm Bureau Federation. Prices for peas, fresh cranberries and sweet potatoes rose.
Prices for wholesale frozen birds weighing 8 pounds to 16 pounds averaged $1.1541 a pound in the week ended last Friday, down from $1.2922 a year earlier, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture data. The declines were similar for larger birds, and fresh turkey prices also fell from 2015.
"Producers are trying to capitalize on really strong margins," Knox Jones, an analyst at Advanced Economic Solutions in Omaha, Neb., said. "Both weights and increased slaughter are adding to production."
Gains for turkey output are adding to this year's domestic glut of meat. Pork and chicken production are also forecast at all-time highs, and beef output is growing. Ballooning supplies are helping to keep a lid on food inflation as farmers are also in the midst of harvesting bumper grain crops.
Still, even though a turkey will cost less this year, prices are still at historical highs. The expense for that 10-person Thanksgiving meal is the second-highest ever.
Frozen turkey inventories have had to be rebuilt after last year's shortfall, said Russ Whitman, vice president at commodity researcher Urner Barry in Toms River, New Jersey. While total turkey supplies in cold storage were up 14 percent from a year ago at the end of September, stockpiles of whole birds had only climbed 1.3 percent, USDA data show.
"Whole hen prices have remained relatively strong, but have shown a smaller-than-typical seasonal increase in recent weeks," the USDA said in a report last Wednesday.
The good news for consumers eager to eat turkey and watch football: many grocery chains use heavily discounted birds to lure in shoppers for all of their holiday food needs.
The average retail price for frozen birds in the week ended Nov. 18 - at 99 cents a pound - was below wholesale costs, but slightly higher than the prior year, USDA data show.
"To my surprise, the ads across the nation are pretty attractive and aggressive," Whitman said. "There's a good chance of clearing out this year."