Dick Jerardi | Separating men from boys

THIS IS THE time of year when everybody I see asks who I like for the Final Four. They think I know something. Some years, I really do. This year, I am not so sure what I know.

Usually, I can narrow it down to about six teams for the championship. I can't do that this year.

Without seeing the brackets, which is really like trying to steer a car with a blindfold, it is really difficult to make any pronouncements. More than ever, the tournament is about matchups, good and bad.

Because there are no dominant teams anymore, even the highest seeds are vulnerable early in the tournament. Wisconsin, for instance, plays a very unique style, but the Badgers rarely blow teams out. Thus, that could make them vulnerable early in the tournament, especially now that Brian Butch is out with an injury. The Badgers are also susceptible to teams with incredible athleticism as Arizona proved in the first round at the Wachovia Center last March.

Conversely, if the Badgers get through a few rounds and come up against more talented teams that are not disciplined on defense and fire up shots indiscriminately on offense, Wisconsin's mistake-free game could be the perfect matchup in that spot.

Understanding how teams play is even more critical than knowing a team's personnel. You can learn a lot by studying statistics. You learn even more by actually seeing teams play. Then, you have to take what you have learned, apply it to individual matchups and try to think it through rationally.

Does an underdog do things well that a favorite can't handle or hasn't seen? Could be an upset.

Consider psychological factors when appropriate.

Does a No. 15 seed have juniors and seniors playing against a No. 2 seed with half the team already thinking about its NBA contracts?

Make your own list of what you think is important. Once

you have established your set of beliefs, don't deviate - until the evidence clearly proves you were wrong in the first place.

Many NCAA "upsets" have perfectly rational explanations. Then, there is George Mason, which is a case without precedent.

As the regular season winds down and conference tournaments begin, I like to make a list of teams that stick out numerically. You can find teams that do one or two things really well. I like the teams that do almost

everything well.

The 2003-04 Saint Joseph's team, you may remember, was the subject of some national debate. Seeing was really enough for me to understand how good the Hawks were. The numbers only confirmed the observation. Those Hawks were in the national top 30 in nine major statistical categories - field-goal percentage, field-goal defense, points, threes per game (second), three-point percentage (fourth), scoring margin (second), assists, steals and fewest turnovers.

Does scoring defense matter? Judge for yourself.

Air Force, Michigan State, Southern Illinois, Georgetown, Butler, Illinois, Texas A & M,

Holy Cross and Wisconsin are second through 10th. There is a chance every one of them will be in the NCAAs. Princeton is first in scoring defense. Does it matter in that case? Obviously not.

Does scoring offense matter? Again, judge for yourself.

North Carolina, Eastern Washington, Northern Arizona, Cal State Fullerton, Texas, Davidson, Notre Dame, Memphis and Arizona are second through 10th. The majority of those teams will be in the field. Leader VMI (102.5) obviously will not.

Ken Pomeroy's terrific Web site (kenpom.com) distills all the numbers into two very powerful numbers - offensive efficiency rating (OE) and defensive efficiency rating (DE), points scored and points allowed per 100 possessions.

Georgetown, for instance, scores 34 points fewer per game than VMI. The Hoyas, however, are No. 1 in offensive efficiency. The Keydets are No. 186.

I like to find teams that are among the leaders in both categories. For instance, Villanova (2006) was 11th in OE and 17th in DE. Villanova (2005) was 12th and fourth, respectively. St. Joe's (2004) was 13th and ninth. Any time you find a team in the top 20 in both categories, that is a team that can beat you all kinds of ways.

In 2004, Duke and Connecticut were 1-2 overall in Pomeroy's

ratings. They played a classic NCAA semifinal and UConn eventually won the title. In 2005, North Carolina and Illinois were 1-2. They played for the title. Last season, Florida and UCLA were 1-3. They played for the title.

This season, three teams are in the top 10 in both categories - North Carolina (third, third), Texas A&M (seventh, sixth) and Florida (eighth, 10th). UCLA (fourth, 12th) is close enough. These are high seeds that, in my opinion, will be least vulnerable to early upsets. I have to think two of them probably will find their way to Atlanta. Which two, of course, is the hard part.

Forget anything you hear or read about Greg Oden coming back to Ohio State for another season. They should have honored him at the last home game Sunday. He is gone. And he should be gone.

Oden gets just 9.4 field-goal

attempts and 6.2 free-throw

attempts per game. Oden's teammates seem not to have noticed him, even though he really is rather hard to miss. They jack up threes as if the ball is burning their hands. His teammates have taken 616 threes. Oden has taken just 207 shots.

Oden's power game is much more suited to the NBA. He is already an NBA-level shot blocker and rebounder. His offense is much better than he's been able to show. First, there is the teammate issue. Second, there is the issue of his surgically repaired right wrist that is still healing.

Oden has an NBA-level jump hook. He can finish with anybody. Certainly, his offensive game needs some polish, but find some of his high school tapes on YouTube. He is a very talented offensive player. Everybody will see that next fall and winter at NBA arenas around the country.

* We celebrate 1,000-point scorers. Consider that LSU's Pete Maravich once scored 1,381 points in a single season - 522 field goals, 337 foul shots, no threes. Add at least 150 points to the total if Pistol was shooting treys. He scored more than 50 points 10 times in 1969-70. And he was the best ballhandler and passer who ever lived.

* La Salle great Lionel Simmons was the most consistent player in Big 5 history. Seventeen years after his last college game, his NCAA record of 115 consecutive double-figure games still stands. It may stand forever.

* The greatest college team?

How about unbeaten UCLA (1971-72)? In Bill Walton's sophomore season, the Bruins averaged 94.6 points and allowed 64.3, an NCAA-record point differential of 30.3 per game. *

Send e-mail to jerardd@phillynews.com