Inquirer movie critics Steven Rea and Carrie Rickey have been chatting by e-mail about their picks for the Oscars, which will be awarded tonight. Here are excerpts; for the complete version, go to
http://philly.com/philly/entertainment/
oscars.html
Supporting actress
Carrie Rickey
: Don't you think supporting actress is the most unpredictable category this year? An 83-year-old veteran (
Ruby Dee
in
American Gangster
), a 13-year-old newcomer (
Saoirse Ronan
, frighteningly talented as the unreliable narrator in
Atonement
), a Broadway-trained spitfire (
Amy Ryan
as the mom-from-hell in
Gone Baby Gone
), an iconic actress as an iconic musician (
Cate Blanchett
as Bob Dylan in
I'm Not There
), and the eternal chameleon (
Tilda Swinton
as the corporate mouthpiece in
Michael Clayton
).
Steven Rea: Supporting actress is rich with great performances. If I were an Academy member, Blanchett would have my vote - it's not just the uncanny gender switch she pulls off, but the way she embodies the Don't Look Back-era Dylan, skinny pants, smirk and all.
Carrie: Don't count out Dee's righteous mother (of Denzel Washington's drug lord in Gangster). She's been making movies for almost 60 years, and this is her first nomination in a distinguished career. Dee took the Screen Actors Guild honors, an 80 percent-reliable Oscar barometer.
Steven: It's Oscar tradition to honor a heretofore neglected Academy talent.
Carrie: So we agree, Ruby Dee?
Steven: Ruby Dee, indeed.
Supporting actor
Steven
:
Casey Affleck
is the long shot. He brought the creepy obsession of a modern-day stalker fan to his portrait of Robert Ford in the slo-mo, arty western
The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
(and he wasn't half bad in
Gone Baby Gone
, either). But it
is
a slo-mo, arty western, not something the Academy voters go gaga over.
Carrie: This year the supporting-actor nominees are as vital to their movies as the leads. They function either as the engine of the movie - like Affleck; Javier Bardem, chilling as the angel of death in No Country for Old Men; and Philip Seymour Hoffman as the CIA strategist in Charlie Wilson's War - or as its moral center, like Hal Holbrook as the father figure in Into the Wild and Tom Wilkinson as the lawyer whose conscience grows back in Michael Clayton.
Steven: Bardem's stone-cold sociopath Anton Chigurh is the stuff of nightmares, and he's got the awards momentum going with the Screen Actors Guild, BAFTA (British Academy of Film and Television Arts), and Golden Globe wins. I think it will come down to either Bardem, with the Big Mo, or Holbrook, with a 50-plus-year acting career and not one previous Oscar nomination!
Carrie: Both supporting races boil down to the beloved American elder (Holbrook, Dee) versus spellbinding foreigner (Bardem, Blanchett). Holbrook wrings tears; Bardem scares the pants off us. My head says Bardem; my heart says Holbrook. I'll go with Holbrook.
Steven: I'm with you on this one. Into the Wild was the one great 2007 film that didn't get its due from the Academy. In recognition of a great, sad American road pic, my vote is with Holbrook.
Director
Carrie
: So many first-time nominees. Only
Joel Coen
(nominated with his brother,
Ethan
, for
No Country for Old Men
) has previously won a directing nomination, in 1996 for
Fargo
.
Paul Thomas Anderson
(
There Will Be Blood
) has prior screenwriting noms for
Boogie Nights
and
Magnolia
.
Tony Gilroy
(
Michael Clayton
),
Jason Reitman
(
Juno
), and
Julian Schnabel
(
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
) are Oscar virgins.
Steven: This one is the Coens' to lose. No Country is the brothers' biggest box office hit ($60 mil and counting), their filmmaking abilities are awesome, and this represents them at the top of their game.
Carrie: That the Coens don't have a director Oscar on their collective mantel is a scandal. They won Directors Guild honors for No Country, which makes them front-runners here. I'd bank on the Coens, for whom it would be an Academy Award and Academy reward, for an idiosyncratic career.
Actress
Steven
: I'd like to dismiss
Cate Blanchett
right away - she's already done Elizabeth I in the 1998 movie
Elizabeth
. Plus,
Elizabeth: The Golden Age
is such a royal, soapy mess. I think the best-actress prize will go to either
Julie Christie
, as the Alzheimer's-afflicted spouse in the heartbreaking love story
Away From Her
, or
Marion Cotillard
, who channeled Edith Piaf in the French music biopic
La Vie en Rose
. Christie won best actress in 1965, at the start of her career, for
Darling
. And while Cotillard was extraordinary, how many actresses have nabbed the Oscar for a performance in a foreign language? I believe just one: Sophia Loren in 1961 for
Two Women
. Do you think little
Ellen Page
could pull off an upset? People love
Juno
.
Carrie: While Laura Linney was superb in The Savages as the neurotic daughter who attempts to put her father's dementia in a positive light, you can dismiss her, too. Best actress is a three-woman race: a Brit (Christie), a Frenchwoman (Cotillard), and a Canadian (Page). My hunch is Christie, but I wouldn't be surprised to see any of those three up there.
Steven: From the interviews I've seen with Page, her hipster-cool fresh-mouthedness isn't too far afield from that of her Juno character. I'm letting my personal preference hold sway: I'm betting on Cotillard.
Actor
Carrie
: All signs point toward
Daniel Day-Lewis
, the presumptive winner for his role as Daniel Plainview in
There Will Be Blood
, a performance that combines the wiliness of Walter Huston in
The Treasure of the Sierra Madre
with the sepulchral evil of John Huston in
Chinatown
. Much as I think Day-Lewis, a prior winner for
My Left Foot
, is chillingly great, I'm getting a feeling that there will be an upset.
Steven: Day-Lewis is Daniel Plainview, and as good a writer and director as Paul Thomas Anderson is, this is the actor's movie, and I think he'll win the actor's Oscar.
But this is another really satisfying group: George Clooney makes it look effortless, and Michael Clayton is such a taut, smart, suspenseful piece of work. Johnny Depp's song-and-slash man in Sweeney Todd is a pleasure, but Depp will have to wait for a serious role before he wins the statuette (he should have been nominated for Donnie Brasco). Of Tommy Lee Jones' two 2007 films in which he plays a lawman on the hunt, In the Valley of Elah gives him more room, and it's a surprisingly effective little film - but a little film it is, and one of the many Iraq-themed titles that never found an audience. And then there's Viggo Mortensen as the Russian mob chauffeur in Eastern Promises - people will be talking about his naked bathhouse fight scene for the next 20 years, don't you think?
Carrie: I certainly can't imagine an actor other than Depp delivering Sweeney's cutthroat performance. And who other than Clooney as the corporate fixer who himself is broken, mixing consummate professionalism with sweaty uncertainty? Mortensen is so physically perfect as the Russian mobster (and I'm not talking about his nude scene) that another actor is unimaginable in the part. Most powerful of all may be Jones, gradually unraveling as the disciplined military man searching for his missing son in Elah. I'm thinking Jones will win this squeaker. You?
Steven: If it doesn't go to Day-Lewis (but I think it will), then Clooney is the guy.
Movie
Steven
: Here's the Big One:
Atonement
,
Juno
,
Michael Clayton
,
No Country for Old Men
, and
There Will Be Blood
.
Atonement
's the longest shot, given that it received only one acting nomination, for young Saoirse Ronan.
Carrie: I agree that Oscar likes Big. Sweeping. Historical. Epics. Think Gone With the Wind, Ben-Hur, Titanic, The English Patient. I don't think Atonement has that kind of sweep. In this weird, anything-goes year, it could be that the indie Juno could upset the presumptive front-runner No Country. Juno has made the most money ($125 million-plus). But Oscar rarely awards best picture to a straight-out comedy. The last time was Annie Hall (1977).
Steven: My feeling is the Coens are going to take both director and picture, but if No Country doesn't, Michael Clayton will - it's the only full-fledged studio project among the five, it has the much-loved Mr. Clooney as its leading man, and its themes are very much in keeping with previous Oscar contenders Erin Brockovich, Silkwood and The Verdict.
Carrie: If No Country doesn't win, I can't decide whether the beneficiary will be Juno McGuff or Michael Clayton. If I were betting my own money, I'd place it on No Country.