Grammys about popularity, but they still matter

Do the Grammys matter?

To Sam Smith, they do. Tonight's telecast on CBS from the Staples Center in Los Angeles is likely to put an exclamation point on a remarkable year for the 22-year-old singer.

The British pop-soul crooner with the tender tenor has gone from virtual unknown - he played the 150-capacity Boot & Saddle in South Philly last March - to joining Taylor Swift as the only artist to sell more than a million copies of an album released in 2014.

At the Grammys, Smith has six nominations, tied for the most with Beyoncé. And he's nominated in all four major categories, including album of the year for In the Lonely Hour, best new artist, and both record and song of the year for "Stay With Me," the song for which he recently gave a co-writing credit to Tom Petty and Jeff Lynne because of its melodic similarities to Petty's "I Won't Back Down."

Quite logically, Las Vegas oddsmakers have installed Smith as a heavy favorite for new artist, and he's also tipped to win both record and song of the year, though it says here that either Swift or Hozier (Irish songwriter Andrew Hozier-Byrne), singer of breakout hit "Take Me to Church," should have something to say about that.

No matter how many Golden Gramophones Smith may take home, he will wake up Monday significantly more well-known than he is today, with an expected audience in the neighborhood of the 28.5 million who watched Pharrell Williams and his now-famous hat last year.

And that's why the Grammys matter, not only to Sam Smith, but also to anyone who stands to receive a career bump from being nominated, winning, or most important of all, getting to perform on the telecast, which Smith will also do.

Ever since digital downloading made the music business go haywire, the industry has been scrambling to assemble a mass audience. And although broadcast TV's standing has slipped, one-time-only live sporting events and award shows have become social-media gathering places with growing - or at least not atrophying - audiences. Last year's ratings were the second highest since 1993.

So the prize is to get on the show, which is why there are so many high-wattage acts performing, many of whom - such as Madonna, or Rihanna, or Kanye West and Paul McCartney - are not nominated for any awards. (Hard to believe because, including the awards that will be given away at a pre-CBS telecast on AXS TV, there are a total of 83 Grammy categories this year.)

So, even more than the Oscars, the Grammys are first and foremost a TV show. And even less than the Oscars, which tend to reward movies that convey a seriousness of purpose, are the Grammys any kind of reliable barometer of artistic quality.

In recent years the Grammy pendulum has swung away from fusty and out of touch to loaded with acts rewarded for their popularity rather than anybody's belief that they have the best recordings from the eligibility period.

That eligibility period is part of the problem. Only music released between Oct. 1, 2013, and Sept. 30, 2014, is eligible. That explains why Swift's single "Shake It Off," which came out in August, is up for two awards, but her 1989 album, which came out in October, can't compete until next February.

Two of the three most widely praised albums of 2014 - D'Angelo's Black Messiah, and Run the Jewels 2 by the hip-hop duo of the same name - also came out too late to qualify. And the other album that scored highest with critics - Lost in the Dream, by Philadelphia rock band the War on Drugs - is apparently unknown to Recording Academy voters.

Here are a few things to watch for on the telecast and pre-show results:

If the the rap album award is presented to Iggy Azalea - the Australian rapper lately mocked for her "blaccent" by Philadelphians Eve and Jill Scott - that would likely set off protests by topping albums by Common, Wiz Khalifa, Childish Gambino, Eminem, and Schoolboy Q.

Offering: Live at Temple University, a 1966 John Coltrane recording, is nominated for liner notes by historian Ashley Kahn.

West Chester label Appleseed Recordings is up for two Grammys, for the American roots song "Just So Much" and folk album A Reasonable Amount of Trouble, both by the late singer-songwriter Jesse Winchester.          

ALBUM OF THE YEAR

Nominees: Beck, Morning Phase; Beyoncé, Beyoncé; Ed Sheeran, X; Sam Smith, In the Lonely Hour; Pharrell Williams, Girl.

Will win: Beyoncé. I was leaning toward Smith's In the Lonely Hour for the evening's final award, but word that Beyoncé has been added to the John-Legend-and-Common-led tribute to Selma, the Ava DuVernay-directed movie about the Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King Jr., has convinced me that the ceremony will end with a Queen Bey coronation.

Should win: Beyoncé. At the pace with which pop music now moves, it seems unreasonably late to honor a release from December 2013. But from its a-video-for-every-song audio-visual boldness to its "Flawless" feminist message, Beyoncé is the most coherent and impressive set on this list.

RECORD OF THE YEAR

Nominees: Iggy Azalea featuring Charli XCX, "Fancy"; Sia, "Chandelier"; Sam Smith, "Stay With Me (Darkchild Version)"; Taylor Swift, "Shake It Off"; Meghan Trainor, "All About That Bass."

Will win: Swift's "Shake It Off." The Wyomissing native is simply too much of an unstoppable force. What would that viral Dover, Del., policeman lip-synching on his dash-cam do if his favorite pop superstar weren't somehow rewarded for her world-dominating efforts?

Should win: Either Swift or "Stay With Me," which is nominated for the version of the haunting multi-tracked vocal version of the song remixed by Pleasantville, N.J., native producer Rodney "Darkchild" Jerkins.

SONG OF THE YEAR

Nominees: Meghan Trainor, "All About That Bass"; Sia, "Chandelier"; Taylor Swift, "Shake It Off"; Sam Smith, "Stay With Me"; Hozier, "Take Me to Church."

Will win: I'm going to go with "Take Me to Church." It's a soaring, spiritual song that was also a huge hit, and Hozier is a sensitive dude with a beard, just like Bon Iver when he was the surprise Best New Artist winner in 2012.

Should win: Smith's "Stay With Me." It's the most emotionally satisfying tune of the bunch, whether it's a Tom Petty rip-off or not.

BEST NEW ARTIST

Nominees: Iggy Azalea; Bastille; Brandy Clark; Haim; Sam Smith.

Will win: Smith.

Should win: Smith. "The male Adele," as he hates to be called, has just the right combination of musical legitimacy and pop success. He's deserving. Azalea will likely be ignored despite the megahits she scored with both "Fancy" and the superior banger "Problem," with Ariana Grande (a recording that ought to be up for song or record of the year). Country songwriter Brandy Clark stands the slimmest of chances, but she's a superb songwriter who's already won by being a surprise nominee. The California sister-act Haim further highlights a strong field.

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