John Baer: Here's how Sestak can overcome the odds against him
SO, FOR Joe Sestak it's into the meat grinder of a campaign against Arlen Specter. This is like seeing Sweeney Todd for a shave. Enter his shop, ya might get your throat cut.
SO, FOR Joe Sestak it's into the meat grinder of a campaign against Arlen Specter. This is like seeing Sweeney Todd for a shave. Enter his shop, ya might get your throat cut.
Sestak bared his neck yesterday by announcing that he's challenging Specter for the Democratic Senate nomination next spring.
Question is, can he emerge as other than a blood-drained, minced political corpse? Can the 57-year-old, two-term congressman beat the 79-year-old three-decade senator?
The answer, of course, is: All things are possible in Pennsylvania politics. The state once snubbed moderate Republican Dick Thornburgh in favor of liberal Harris Wofford, then dumped him for uber-conservative Rick Santorum.
And it's not like long-tenured Senate giants haven't fallen in the past. Venerable Arkansas Democrat J. William Fulbright served 29 years before being ousted in a primary by Dale Bumpers in 1974; Illinois Republican Chuck Percy served 18 years before being beaten by Democrat Paul Simon in 1984; Delaware Republican William Roth served 30 years before losing to then-Gov. Tom Carper in 2000.
Yet, Specter, by all that's known and supposed, should win on the basis of money, name ID, statewide campaign experience and support from labor and big-name Democrats such as President Obama, Vice President Joe Biden and Gov. Rendell.
At a minimum these powerhouse pols should be able to keep down contributions to Sestak within Pennsylvania as Specter subjects Sestak to death by a thousand cuts.
Yesterday morning, as Sestak announced his candidacy, Specter's camp sliced at Sestak for missing 105 House votes this year, failing to show up for work, even for "indecisiveness" about running, suggesting that it raises a question of Sestak's "competency" to be a senator.
Sestak responded by saying, "Let's stop the scorched-earth policy."
Yeah, well, batten down the hatches, Joe. More scorches to come.
Still, Sestak can win - if:
One, he raises enough money to allow the talented Philly-based Campaign Group (Rendell's, Nutter's and others' campaigns) to air enough TV to get him known statewide and pair Specter with Anita Hill, George Bush and Santorum.
Two, he saturates the state with images of Bush thanking Specter for supporting the Iraq War and Bush's tax cuts, neither of which appeals to Democratic primary voters.
Three, he cashes in on the fact that such primary voters are not the same as they were pre-Obama; they're younger, more active, more liberal and less aware of Specter's service to the state. This group, in my view, outnumbers pro-Specter moderate Republicans who last year switched parties to vote for Obama.
And, four, he sells the idea that he, not Specter, is the real Democrat in the race, and will vote more often with Obama than Specter will on health care and education. "Listen to what [Arlen] said," says Sestak, " 'I'm going to vote as I did in the GOP.' "
Now, there are unknowables in all campaigns. Does Specter still have his legendary stamina? Does Sestak shine or shrink in the bright lights of a Senate race? And who's better armed to battle apparent GOP nominee Pat Toomey in next year's general election?
Toomey yesterday issued a statement welcoming Sestak to the race, calling him "a consistent liberal who really believes in his values" while tagging Specter as "a career political opportunist who believes in nothing but his own re-election."
Sounds to me Toomey would prefer a run against Sestak.
If he gets that chance, it will be because Sestak ran a near-flawless, well-funded campaign. It will be because "Arlen fatigue" expanded and Obama's popularity waned.
But absent those important factors, Sestak's entry into the fray could well be his first steps into Arlen's barbershop. *
Send e-mail to baerj@phillynews.com.
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