John Baer: Pa. may go its own way in primary
TOMORROW, WE LEARN something about our politics. The primary election, in addition to setting the table for November, provides answers to questions about whether Pennsylvania is part of the electoral change that seems to be sweeping America - or not. No two elections, even in the same cycle in the same
TOMORROW, WE LEARN something about our politics.
The primary election, in addition to setting the table for November, provides answers to questions about whether Pennsylvania is part of the electoral change that seems to be sweeping America - or not. No two elections, even in the same cycle in the same state, are alike. But the national trend is pro-proletariat, out with the old/in with the new and anti-Democratic Party, all reflective of voter agitation with present political leadership. A few elections here test the trend.
If, for example, we remain a state where campaigns are won by candidates with the most money, party support and on-the-ground organization, then Arlen Specter, Pat Toomey, Tom Corbett and Dan Onorato win.
If, however, change is really in the air, we'll see different results.
Also, GOP primaries will measure the strength of underfunded grassroots movements, often lumped together as so-called tea-party voters. And we'll learn whether incumbents caught in legislative scandals, including Philly's own John Perzel, survive primaries even while charged with corruption.
Let's look at details.
The Democratic Senate race is the marquee event, and it isn't pretty. Specter went at Joe Sestak's military career and labeled Sestak "just another politician," as if Specter somehow isn't.
Sestak, in two ads, used a photo of Specter taken two years ago when the senator was nearly bald and recovering from chemotherapy; a not-so-subtle suggestion that Specter's too old and sickly to serve.
Every traditional yardstick says Specter prevails. But Sestak benefits greatly from evident voter unhappiness with longtime incumbents and the oddity of Specter running as a Democrat after a career in the GOP.
The election is all about Specter, but the outcome will also answer a question about Democratic Party organization: Can it do better in Pennsylvania than it has done recently in Massachusetts, New Jersey and Virginia?
The Democratic governor's race has far less attention, which helps Onorato, the best-financed candidate. But because Philly's Tony Williams, a distant second in the polls, raised millions from abortion-rights education interests, there's a possibility of an altered ending.
I don't see Williams pulling a stunner, but if he and 'burbs-guy Joe Hoeffel eat up enough southeastern votes, underfunded, almost-off-the-radar Jack Wagner could squeak by.
Not saying it's likely, just saying it's possible.
The Republicans?
Well, since the GOP guv's race features grassroots, tea-party conservative Sam Rohrer against party-choice Corbett, Rohrer's showing illustrates the size of the anti-establishment, plain-angry, frustrated voting bloc in the state.
The GOP must have some concerns. Late last week it mailed an anti-Rohrer message reminding targeted voters that he voted for the '05 legislative pay raise, a vote Rohrer has said he regrets.
Meanwhile, longtime anti-abortion activist Peg Luksik offers Republicans an alternative to party-endorsed Pat Toomey for Senate. Her vote-draw, though likely to a lesser extent than Rohrer's, also gives a glimpse of what's out there in terms of hard-line tea-party types. This isn't to say those voters don't like Toomey. But Luksik has been further right than Toomey in her call to, among other things, close our borders and constitutionally challenge all new and existing federal programs.
Finally, three lawmakers charged with political corruption are on the ballot: Philly Republican and former House Speaker Perzel; Greene County Democrat and former House Speaker Bill DeWeese, and Pittsburgh Republican and former Senate Whip Jane Orie. Orie has no primary opposition and so far faces only a Democratic write-in candidate in November (an independent candidate still could emerge).
But Perzel and DeWeese, each in office more than 30 years, have primary opponents. If these two veteran lawmakers win, that suggests the national trend against longtime incumbents (in this case, even if charged with crimes) doesn't apply to local politics or to our own sterling Legislature.
Send e-mail to baerj@phillynews.com.
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