Bolaris: Get ready for a Super Bowl hangover
The latest computer models see no significant reason to deviate from my earlier forecast on Monday's storm.
A beautiful Super Bowl Sunday will turn into a nasty Monday as a mix of rain, sleet and then eventually all heavy wet snow will provide the normal slick roadways, travel headaches, and a lot of when-is-this-going-to-end kind of thing.
Let me give you some good news with this storm: it is nothing like the other storms we have had this winter when bitter cold air combined with developing secondary storm systems to produce heavy dry snow bands that rapidly accumulated - combined with high 15-1 to 20-1 snow ratios when the norm is 10-1 - and painful wind chill factors.
This storm will be a milder one, and although this storm will carry more moisture than past storms, a key missing ingredient will be the polar intrusion.
So, we'll see plenty of mixing at the start of the storm, which will cut down on snow totals. Plus, temperatures will flirt with the freezing mark to keep snow-to-liquid ratios much lower.
And this wet snow will not last. Most of it will be plowed away by early evening and I'm not looking for snow build-up on the main highways. Some, yes, but not major. Secondary roadways will become snow-covered, but it will be a wet snow cover.
Snow will stick to the power lines and trees but wind will not be a factor so I'm not looking for snapping lines or trees. Wind chill will not be a significant problem.
We could push 4 inches, or a little more in some places, but a lot of this will be on your grassy areas and sidewalks.
It's a fast-moving storm so banding of accumulating snow should last about 4-5 hours. We could see an inch per hour when this band develops and that is when we will pick up significant snow accumulations .
Timing
Mainly rain arrives after 2 a.m.
A mix of rain, sleet and snow during the morning rush, changing to all snow between 8 and 9 a.m., earlier north and west of city.
The heaviest snow accumulates from 10 a.m. to 2 p.m., and we could see rates of an inch per hour.
From 2 to 4 p.m. the snow tapers and ends from west to east.
Evening rush: A WET SNOW, will cover roadways, but mainly secondary.
After 7 p.m., PennDOT will have most of the roads clear as it is a very easy-to-plow wet snow.
Potential snow totals
City: 3-4 inches, with a moderate level threat (40-50 percent) of exceeding 4 inches.
Most of Chester, central Montgomery, and central and lower Bucks counties: 4-6 inches.
Delaware County: 4-5 inches, with a low level threat (30 percent) of exceeding 5 inches.
Eastern Montgomery County: 4-5 inches, with a low level threat (30 percent) of exceeding 5 inches.
Lehigh Valley: 2-4 inches, with a sharp cut-off of snow.
Berks County: 3-6 inches.
All of interior southern New Jersey will be in the 3-6 inch range due to quite a bit of mixing in front end of storm.
Southeastern New Jersey and all shore locations will see mainly rain, with a coating possible on the back end of storm.
Atlantic City: 1-2 inches at the back end of storm.
New Castle County, Del.: 3-6 inches. The heaviest band could set up across New Castle County.
Kent County, Del.: Southern end, 2-3 inches; northern end, 2-5 inches.
All points south of Dover: mainly rain.
Enjoy the Super Bowl!
John Bolaris