Skip to content
Link copied to clipboard

Bolaris: Potential nor'easter looms after the weekend

First storm on tap is for Saturday and Saturday night, not anticipating any concerns with this one as milder air will be in place and looking at simply plain rain, with most of the rain falling later in the day Saturday and Saturday night.

We should dry out briefly Sunday — a small reprieve between a wet couple of days early in the weekend and a potential nor'easter next week.

The joker in the deck of storms is for Monday into Tuesday. As I write, computer model spreads are as large as the Grand Canyon, meaning I have a very low confidence in the outcome of this, I repeat, potential nor'easter Monday into Tuesday.

By joker, I mean your local meteorologist's forecast this early in the period could turn out to be laughable.

Model impacts have been anywhere from little, if any, impact to a very significant impact with heavy rain for the city, and a frozen mix/snow in our suburbs to the north and west. Coastal concerns are on the rise as a very strong pressure gradient — the pressure difference between strong high pressure to the north and developing low pressure to the South — will create a strong north-northeast wind of 30-plus miles per hour for at least a 12 to 24 hour period.

That will produce tidal flooding along the Jersey Shore even if the storm remains well off into the Atlantic.

The possibility of rain in the city could mix in with sleet and snow before ending late Monday night or Tuesday.

Right now, it's really even tough to speculate with such large variations in the models. Pay close attention as we head into the weekend as folks have a tendency to get caught by surprise by rapidly changing forecasts that take place over the weekend.