'Hurricane' Schwartz on Hurricane Matthew: Trouble is brewing

UPDATE: MIAMI (AP) - Hurricane Matthew gained new fury as it hammered the central Bahamas early Thursday, and forecasters said the life-threatening storm is expected to strengthen as it approaches Florida's heavily populated Atlantic coast.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami said Matthew, though still a dangerous Category 3 hurricane as the day dawned, was expected to regain status as an even more powerful Category 4 storm in coming hours. Top sustained winds ratcheted up from 115 mph to 125 mph overnight. More to come.

MAJOR HURRICANE TO HIT FLORIDA

Here's the latest on Hurricane Matthew from the National Hurricane Center:

A hurricane with max winds of 120 mph is still a Category 3 and is still a MAJOR hurricane.

Matthew may strengthen as it crosses the Bahamas on a track toward the eastern coast of Florida.

If it does become a Category 4 again (>130 mph) and tracks as predicted, it will be the FIRST hurricane that strong to hit within 100 miles of Cape Canaveral in recorded history! This is an area that rarely gets a direct hit of any hurricane, let alone a major one.

THIS TRACK MEANS EVEN MORE TROUBLE

A hurricane that hits straight on will cause a lot of damage over a relatively small area, compared to what Matthew will do. Tracking right along the coast will mean that more than 200 miles of coastline could get 50+ mph winds, torrential rain, and storm surge. It means a lot more people will need to be evacuated than in a straight-on hit.

Since at least part of the circulation of Matthew will remain over the warm ocean, it won't weaken nearly as much as a normal landfalling storm would. It could stay a hurricane all the way up the Florida coast and even into Georgia and/or South Carolina.

THE TURN-AND EVEN POSSIBLY A LOOP BACK TO FLORIDA?

The chance of Matthew tracking all the way up the coast toward us is close to zero. The cold front that will pass through Saturday (bringing showers to our area) will cause Matthew to turn to the right. Then, the HIGH pressure that builds over our area behind the front will help force Matthew more to the south.

The latest "Spaghetti Models" show many solutions that have Matthew continuing to turn right until it makes almost a full circle-perhaps hitting the Florida East Coast AGAIN!

That's a very unusual track, but such "loops" have happened before. But even if that does happen, Matthew is not likely to be a major hurricane.

Still, getting hit twice by the same storm would be a bit too much….

Stay tuned for more updates.