'Hurricane' Schwartz: It's mainly about 'Bill'
The threat is real. Expect weekend showers and thunderstorms.
Sheena Parveen updated this forecast 3:45 p.m. Friday with the following: We're watching for possible flooding this weekend from the remnants of Bill as it passes over the area late Saturday into early Sunday. Flood watches are posted from the Poconos to the NJ Shore and Delaware beaches. The entire Philadelphia area has a chance to see localized street and creek flooding through overnight Saturday into early Sunday morning.
It may be hard to believe that a mere Tropical Storm hitting the Texas coast could survive 1,000-plus miles into Pennsylvania. But you need to believe it, because the threat is real. No, it won't be a Tropical Storm or even a Tropical Depression by the time it gets close enough to affect us.
But tropical moisture doesn't just disappear. It will be steered by winds high up in the atmosphere. The difference is that the air near the remnant center of "Bill" is very humid, and contains a lot more moisture than a typical wet weather system. The track and timing of this moisture is critical, just like any other storm. The general timing brings some of that rain into our area during a part of Father's Day Weekend. Fortunately, there will be nowhere near as much rain as Oklahoma and Texas got from Bill.
Here is an example of one of the computer model maps for Saturday and Sunday at 8 a.m. The L is the remnant center of "Bill":
Notice the big yellow blob right over the Philadelphia area Sunday morning. The L would be right near that. So, this model brings the heaviest of the rain and t'storms near us. Then it gets a bit drier behind the blob. So, the most likely time for the heaviest weekend rain is between about 2 a.m.-noon Sunday, depending on where you are. Western counties would see most of the heavy rain overnight, while the shore areas would see a very wet and stormy morning.
If the system moves a bit quicker than expected, much of Sunday could turn out rain-free, but hot and humid. There could still be a late t'storm. If it moves more slowly, more of Sunday would be threatened.
Phila. area: Lots of clouds. Showers likely. High 80. Chance of rain at any one spot: 70% (but it won't rain all day)
NJ Shore: Mostly cloudy. Some showers likely. High 73. Chance of rain at any one spot: 60%. Atlantic City ocean temp: 69
DE Beaches: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. High 75. Chance of rain at any one spot: 40%
Poconos: Cloudy. Some showers likely. High 72. Chance of rain at any one spot: 70%
Phila. area: Showers & possible heavy t'storms AM. Hot & humid PM with chance of a t'storm. High near 90. Chance of rain at any one spot: 80% (mainly early in the day)
NJ Shore: Showers and heavy t'storms. Some may be severe. High 84. Chance of rain at any one spot: 85%
DE Beaches: Showers and heavy t'storms. Some may be severe. High 88. Chance of rain at any one spot: 70%
Poconos: Showers likely. Chance of heavy t'storm. High 78. Chance of rain at any one spot: 60%
Sunday could see a threat for some localized flooding with the possibility 1-2 inches of rain could fall.
Watch Glenn "Hurricane" Schwartz weekdays on NBC10 at 11 a.m., 4 p.m. and 6 p.m. Follow him on Twitter@HurricaneNBC and stay informed when weather changes on the NBC10 app and with the NBC10 First Alert Weather Team on Facebook: NBC10Weather.