An umbrella, optional today, will become necessary tomorrow and into the weekend.

First up is the Nor'easter that got started today and will intensify tomorrow.  Rain is expected to be heavy at times Friday and into Friday night.  It could bring much of the region 1 to 3 inches of rain.  Winds will be strongest at the shore and, with the potential of heavy rainfall, coastal flooding is likely around mid-day high tide tomorrow.  It could continue to be a problem through the weekend for shore communities.

Let's talk Hurricane Joaquin 

Joaquin is now a major hurricane and is forecast to strengthen.  It is continuing to batter the central Bahamas now and will keep doing so through Friday morning.

The key question is what happens once it finally starts moving north.

Joaquin will start to make its move later Friday and will continue moving north up the east coast of the U.S. over the weekend and into next week.

The big question mark has been whether Joaquin turns left or turns right.  Over the past few days, many models have been predicting a left turn, bringing Joaquin directly into the east coast.

But the European model has been the lone objector to this scenario, up until now.  The Euro, as we call it, accurately predicted Hurricane Sandy days before it made landfall.  For days, the Euro has been suggesting Joaquin will go right, away from the coast.  Now, other models are starting to fall in line with the Euro.

This is an encouraging sign, but not a done deal.  For now, the National Hurricane Center is going down the middle of this forecast road.  It still gives Joaquin a shot at an east coast hit but not a guarantee.  It's just enough to keep people planning for the worst with encouraging signs that the worst might not happen this time around.