Palin's power is felt again

ANCHORAGE, Alaska - As Sen. Lisa Murkowski watched the returns come in at her election headquarters on primary night, she became painfully aware of two powerful forces in American politics in 2010: anti-incumbent rage and Sarah Palin.

The Republican senator, seeking reelection, trailed conservative lawyer Joe Miller by nearly 1,500 votes Wednesday, despite being heavily favored to defeat the lesser-known candidate in the GOP primary.

She is hoping that several thousand uncounted absentee ballots can swing the election in her favor. Both sides were bracing for a long count to determine the winner.

Regardless of the outcome, the primary is an indication of the influence Palin wields in midterm elections as she looks ahead to a possible White House bid in 2012.

She had been on a losing streak as of late in her role as self-styled "Mama Grizzly" kingmaker, but that seems to have changed with wins in other primaries Tuesday and the possibility of a Murkowski loss.

The race is the latest chapter in a long-running political saga between Palin and the Murkowski family dating to 2002, when then-Gov. Frank Murkowski appointed his daughter to the Senate, bypassing the up-and-coming Palin.

Palin routed him four years later in the primary on the way to her becoming governor, and now she may have helped derail his daughter's career.

The women have clashed since on the issue of repealing the new health-care law and Palin's decision to resign as governor last summer.

Murkowski was accused of flip-flopping on the GOP goal of repealing the law, something she said was flat wrong.

She also likely was hurt by an antiabortion measure on the primary ballot, which drew the most votes. It probably increased the turnout of conservative voters who could be expected to lean toward Miller since Murkowski supports abortion rights, a position that has long cost her support among the state's right wing.

Murkowski on Wednesday declined to discuss what kind of influence Palin might have had on the race.

Pollster Marc Hellenthal, who often works with Republicans, lays the blame for Murkowski's predicament on her failure to respond quickly to a barrage of negative ads.

"It was every 15 minutes, wasn't it?" he asked of the airing of ads by the Tea Party Express, a group based in California. "And they literally accused her of almost everything imaginable."

Murkowski, 53, focused on her record and experience for much of the campaign but began fighting back near the end. But by then, it was "way too late in the ball game," Hellenthal said.

With nearly all precincts reporting, Miller led Murkowski by 1,490 votes. Thousands of absentee ballots still need to be counted.

The state sent out about 16,000 absentee ballots. The Division of Elections had received about 7,600 of them by Monday, but they are not part of the tally.

Absentee ballots postmarked by election day can be received for up to 10 days after the election, meaning the count of outstanding mail-in votes won't begin for several days.

"It ain't over yet, folks," Murkowski told reporters in Anchorage on Wednesday. "There is much, much yet to be counted."

Miller, 43, is an Ivy League-educated West Point graduate who served in the 1990-91 Persian Gulf War before moving to Alaska more than 15 years ago because of his love of the outdoors.

He said he entered his first statewide run for public office because he believed the nation was "in crisis," with out-of-control funding of government entitlements and a rising national debt.

"Gov. Palin put the spotlight on the race for us in the beginning," said Levi Russell, spokesman for the Tea Party Express, which spent at least $550,000 to help Miller. "We felt there was a good candidate here, and a chance to beat a closeted liberal."

The fact that an incumbent Alaska senator is in danger of being ousted for pursuing federal dollars is stunning given the state's long history of relying so heavily on government money.

The death of former Sen. Ted Stevens two weeks before the primary reminded many Alaskans of his legacy of bringing home billions of dollars in projects and money to the state, and he was a longtime supporter of Murkowski.

Clive Thomas, a political science professor at the University of Alaska Southeast who has spoken extensively on the Palin phenomenon, summed up the close race like this: "I'm confused."

The GOP primary winner will be favored in November over Sitka Mayor Scott McAdams, who won the Democratic nomination.

In Arizona, the son of former Vice President Dan Quayle won the Republican primary for a Phoenix-area congressional seat. Ben Quayle emerged from a crowded field in the fight for an open seat in a Republican-leaning district.

The Vermont Senate's top Democrat apparently won the party's gubernatorial nomination, but the prospect of

a recount loomed for a party that would prefer a united front in trying to win back the office.

Senate President Pro Tem Peter Shumlin led State Sen. Doug Racine by 190 votes and said he believed he

had won. Secretary of State Deb Markowitz appeared

to be headed to a close third-place finish, 684 votes behind Shumlin.

Lt. Gov. Brian Dubie ran unopposed for the Republican nomination. The winner in November will replace Republican Gov. Jim Douglas, who is stepping down after four two-year terms. Democrats have not held the office since 2003, when Howard Dean was governor.

Under state law, a candidate who trails the leader by

less than 2 percent of total votes cast - both Racine and Markowitz fell into that category - can petition for a recount.

- Associated Press

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