One-third of Pa. voters remain undecided

A gubernatorial primary campaign that never really caught the public's imagination will come to a close Tuesday with polls indicating that a third of Pennsylvania voters haven't solidly made up their minds.

In the four-way race for the Democratic nomination, State Sen. Anthony Hardy Williams of Philadelphia is pouring hundreds of thousands of dollars into aggressive, last-ditch TV ads in the hope of catching Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato, who holds a big lead in voter surveys.

With far less money for ads, the other Democrats - state Auditor General Jack Wagner and Montgomery County Commissioner Joe Hoeffel - have struggled to attract attention despite months of crisscrossing the state. But with so many voters on the fence, neither has given up the fight.

On the Republican side, state Attorney General Tom Corbett has held such dominance - in name recognition, campaign money, and support from party leaders - that he has appeared at times to look beyond the primary to November. He didn't bother to run Philadelphia-area TV ads until recent days - and then mainly to remind the electorate that he was still around.

Corbett's sole foe in the Republican primary, State Rep. Sam Rohrer of Berks County, is a favorite of tea party conservatives and the only candidate in either party who consistently has drawn good crowds. But a devoted following does not necessarily mean a large following.

About as many Republicans as Democrats have said they are undecided in polls. However, the same polls have Rohrer so far behind Corbett that analysts believe it would be difficult for him to close the gap. His problem: no money, few ads.

Though overshadowed by the nationally watched U.S. Senate battle between incumbent Arlen Specter and his Democratic rival, Rep. Joe Sestak, the race for governor ought to have attracted more attention than it has, pollster Berwood Yost said.

"There is no way we should have the number of undecided voters we have at this stage in the race," said Yost, who is director of the Center for Opinion Research at Franklin and Marshall College.

"It just tells me that no one has struck a chord with voters on either side," Yost said. "We have enormous crises facing the state. The pension crisis is mind-boggling, but no one is talking about it."

None of the six candidates has demonstrated the star power that Ed Rendell and Bob Casey Jr. - now governor and senator - showed in their titanic battle for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination in 2002, the last time no incumbent was on the ballot.

Yet the candidates are far from Little Leaguers. For the most part, they represent the best and brightest in their parties. All have extensive experience in government and politics. All come across as smart, driven, and knowledgeable.

In many ways, the 2010 primary season has been comparable to the 1994 season, when Democratic Gov. Robert P. Casey Sr. was set to leave office at year's end, as Rendell is.

That race, too, was low-profile. Tom Ridge, a U.S. representative from Erie, won the GOP nomination in a field of five candidates. Lt. Gov. Mark Singel, who had been acting governor, was tops among six Democrats.

Singel, now a Harrisburg lobbyist, has watched this year's contest with interest. He said that if Onorato won, it would have a lot to do with the candidate's work as the county executive in Pittsburgh and his previous experience as county controller and a city councilman.

But Singel said it would also have to do with the discipline Onorato had shown in spending hours on the phone each day - starting two years ago - to ask donors for cash.

"Dan Onorato made up his mind to run for governor years ago, probably from his infancy," Singel joked. "That's what the job requires."

With $6.2 million on hand as of Jan. 1 - nearly 10 times what any other Democrat had - Onorato was already the man to beat.

Williams, who got in late, has raised about $4 million since February - nearly all of it from a few businessmen in the suburbs and elsewhere who like his advocacy of public tuition vouchers for nonpublic education.

But Onorato was able to start running TV ads weeks ahead of Williams.

By the time Williams got on the air, Onorato already had established a positive view of himself among voters across the state. That was "gigantic" in separating him from the pack, said political scientist Chris Borick of Muhlenberg College.

"If there's ever been a clear testament to the importance of finance in a statewide race, we've got it in the 2010 Democratic primary," Borick said.

Recent Williams ads attacking Onorato as a tax-raiser and pay-to-play politician have been met by Onorato ads taking Williams to task for having voted to increase state employee pensions, including his own.

State Rep. Dwight Evans (D., Phila.), a Williams ally who ran second in the 1994 Democratic primacy race for governor, said Williams still had a chance to win if voter turnout in Philadelphia was higher than expected.

The fiery Senate race could draw voters, he said, and so could black pride in Williams.

Evans said he had told Democrats at a recent ward meeting in North Philadelphia: "If you give him a good vote," Williams "can pull this out."

Hoeffel and Wagner, both veteran candidates, have not taken off, according to polls. Analysts cite that same reason: Neither has raised enough money.

Hoeffel, too, is counting on Philadelphia-area votes, starting with a strong showing in his home county, which has become a suburban Democratic bastion in recent years.

But Hoeffel, who has cast himself as the only true progressive in the race, was undercut when Williams got in. Hoeffel had hoped, as a lone candidate from the east, to benefit from the fight between Onorato and Wagner, both Pittsburghers.

Wagner was regarded as an early leader with Onorato, but he has run a low-to-the-ground campaign, stacking up support county by county.

"Jack Wagner and his people have worked hard," Singel said. "Every other day you see him getting an endorsement. . . . The problem is, this is a wholesale campaign as opposed to a retail campaign, and you really have got to get your message on the airwaves."

In the Republican race, Rohrer said he understood he was running uphill. But he said the excitement he saw from Republicans fed up with the political status quo was a force the polls weren't registering.

George Dunbar, Republican chairman of Westmoreland County, east of Pittsburgh, said he saw far more lawn signs for Rohrer than for Corbett, the candidate Dunbar is supporting.

"But the old axiom," Dunbar said, "is that signs don't vote."

These offices will be up for election Tuesday. Also on the ballot will be races for the state Senate and House.

U.S. Senate

Democrat

Joe Sestak

Arlen Specter*

Republican

K. Peg Luksik

Pat Toomey

Governor

Democrat

Joseph Hoeffel

Dan Onorato

Jack Wagner

Anthony Hardy Williams

Republican

Tom Corbett

Samuel Rohrer

Lieutenant

Governor

Democrat

H. Scott Conklin

Jonathan Saidel

Doris Smith-Ribner

Republican

Chet Beiler

Jim Cawley

Russ Diamond

Steve Johnson

John Kennedy

Billy McCue

Daryl Metcalfe

Jean Pepper

Stephen Urban

U.S. House

Sixth District

Democrat

Doug Pike

Manan Trivedi

Republican

Jim Gerlach*

Patrick Sellers

Eighth District

Republican

Gloria Carlineo

Michael Fitzpatrick

Ira Hoffman

James Jones

13th District

Republican

Carson Adcock

Brian Haughton

Joshua Quinter

15th District

Republican

Mat Benol

Charles Dent*

* Incumbent

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