Hurricane season expected to hit hard despite slow start

For those wondering whatever happened to this year's predicted nightmarish hurricane season, forecasters have issued the following advisory: Just wait.

Although the season hasn't exactly burst out of the gates, conditions remain "very conducive" for a hyperactive season in the Atlantic Basin, Gerry Bell, lead forecaster at the government's Climate Prediction Center, said Thursday.

"It's just a matter of getting to the right time of year," said Bell, "which is now."

In issuing the August update for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Bell said a few storms were trimmed from the outlook because of the sluggish start. But he reiterated that "the season could be very active, with the potential of being one of the more active on record."

Other updates issued recently by Colorado State University; AccuWeather Inc. in State College, Pa.; and WSI Corp., a Massachusetts company that serves energy interests, were virtually unchanged from earlier menacing outlooks.

The consensus among hurricane experts is that the Atlantic Basin is about to yield a harvest of tropical storms.

Bell cited record warm water in the Atlantic, a hangover of the record winter; rapid cooling in the tropical Pacific, which could have a major impact on the winter of 2010-11; and the continuation of an active hurricane era that took hold in 1995.

Colorado State forecasters William Gray and Philip Klotzbach said the possibility - albeit not great - of a hurricane's impacting New Jersey and Delaware was about twice normal. More storms also would mean an increased likelihood of heavy rains from tropical remnants in the Philadelphia region.

By the time the season ends on Nov. 30, Bell said, it is likely that from 14 to 20 named storms - those with winds of at least 39 m.p.h. - will have formed in the basin. The basin includes the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea. In May, NOAA called for 14 to 23. The average is 11.

NOAA adjusted the likely hurricane range from eight to 14 down to eight to 12. The average for hurricanes, which require peak winds of at least 74 m.p.h., is six. It is looking for four to six major hurricanes, with winds of 111 m.p.h. or better, compared with an annual average of two.

Accu-Weather's Joe Bastardi said Thursday that he believed this had a good chance to be one of the top 10 all-time seasons.

A key factor is the rapidly developing La Niña, or cooling of surface waters in the equatorial Pacific. Right now, Bell said, those waters are anomalously cool over 10.5 million square miles, reaching a third of the way around the globe, and could affect the world's weather for months.

The government's Climate Prediction Center said Thursday it expected La Niña conditions - perhaps moderate to strong - to persist through the winter.

This might be fortuitous for local snow-loathers. Winters coinciding with moderate-to-strong La Niñas have tended to be wanting for snow around here. In one such winter, 1949-50, only 1.9 inches of snow was measured in Philadelphia.

Last winter was characterized by an anomalous warming in the Pacific, El Niño. The warming, working in tandem with a persistent pressure pattern in the North Atlantic that pressed cold air southward, conspired to bring Philadelphia's record snows.

The pressure pattern also shut off the trade winds that carry cool air and water southward, allowing the tropical Atlantic to reach record warmth, said Bell. Hurricanes feed off warm water.