Sources say winter may be snowy again

From snow-covered Eurasia, to the Pacific Ocean, to a cramped hardware store next to the train tracks in Wayne, for the region's winter-phobes the indicators have been ominous.

"Everybody is freaking out already," said Jeff Muth, manager of the Do It Best store that his father owns, where the snow- and ice-fighting merchandise has been the hot ticket this fall. "We've sold more than ever."

According to various sources, the anxiety might be warranted.

The early returns are in, and just about all the winter outlooks have cast chilling votes for a reprise of above-normal snowfall and below-normal temperatures around here - although not likely to measure up to last winter.

"I am hoping these predictions are as wrong as the daily forecasts," said Jim Scanlon, superintendent of the West Chester Area School District, shut down 10 times by assorted winter mischief last school year.

Well, on the bright side, Superintendent, the record does show that they actually are way more likely to be wrong.

In the atmosphere, chaos remains the international pastime.

Last fall, the consensus call was for a mild winter, and if what followed wasn't the most disruptive on record, it was a finalist. It was the second-snowiest on record, with 68 inches in Philadelphia, more than triple the average, with an unprecedented four 8-inch-plus snowfalls. And the climactic event was virtually snowless - the devastating Feb. 5 ice storm that shut down some towns for days.

Whether that mayhem, and the fact that some of the biggest snowstorms on record have occurred in the last five winters, has anything to do with the ponderously warming planet and the increase in free-floating waters in the Arctic remains a subject of scientific inquiry.

Whatever the causes, recent trends have prompted the National Weather Service to bump up the age-old 4-inch threshold for a "winter storm warning." A warning now will require a 5-inch snowfall within a four-hour period in the immediate Philadelphia area and all of South Jersey.

Based on the outlooks, the region would have no trouble getting its share of snow warnings and attendant panics, even with the new criteria.

Forecasts issued by AccuWeather Inc., in State College, Pa.; John Bolaris at Philly.com; Dave Tolleris at WxRisk.com, in Virginia, and Joe Bastardi, at WeatherBell, based in New York, all see snow above normal and temperatures below. Bastardi (30 inches) and Bolaris (30 to 40 inches) were the only ones with specific amounts.

At the risk of alienating the meteorological community, we'll throw in the Old Farmer's Almanac, which votes snow and cold. Commodity Weather Group, in Washington, and WSI Corp., in Massachusetts, didn't address precipitation but did call for cold to arrive by January.

Predictably, the government outlook was more circumspect, with no guess on temperatures but with an intriguing stripe of above-normal precipitation painted along the East Coast, suggesting a progression of coastal storms.

One government meteorologist, Tony Gigi, at the National Weather Service in Mount Holly, did go so far last week at a media briefing to say that the signs, some of which have been referenced in other outlooks, are pointing toward snow and cold.

Among them is the robust Siberian snow cover this fall. Of the seven biggest snowfalls in the satellite era, dating to the '60s, Gigi noted that five have occurred in years with above-average Eurasian snowfall for September and October.

He also noted that the warmer sea-surface temperatures in the Gulf of Alaska region would favor cold for the Philadelphia region.

A wild card this winter is the tropical Pacific, where sea-surface temperatures are expected to remain slightly above normal, resulting in a weak El Niño that would affect west-to-east winds in the high atmosphere. El Niño-influenced winters have had varying effects on winters in the Midatlantic and Northeast, but they tend to be characterized by an energized coastal storm track.

Gigi said one indicator to watch for would be a 6-inch snowfall before the new year. In the 11 seasons in which that has occurred, at least one snowfall of 6 inches or more followed later in the winter.

Come what may, Scanlon, the school superintendent, holds that snow days have a beneficial side.

"The good thing that came out of last winter was families got a chance to spend time with each other," he said, "something that is typically missing with all the technology today.

"Maybe Mother Nature is telling us all to slow down a little bit."

68

inches of snow last winter.

22.3

Philadelphia's winter average inches of snow

968K

Peco power outages from the Feb. 5 ice storm

??

Snow-day-weary parents

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