Chavez has tough rival in Venezuelan election

CARACAS, Venezuela - Weakened from battling cancer and visibly bloated, President Hugo Chavez is fighting for his political life as he faces a presidential election Sunday against a charismatic challenger who has energized a once-disunited opposition in a way none of the populist leader's foes ever has.

At stake is the president's experiment to remake Venezuela, a 14-year transformation characterized by the expropriation of private companies, diplomatic initiatives to counter U.S. influence, and a near-mystical bond with the country's poor masses.

Two established pollsters show Chavez, 58, with a substantial advantage, underscoring the loyalty of millions he has commanded since sweeping into power in 1998. But two others have Chavez and the challenger, Henrique Capriles, 40, a lawyer and former governor who has never lost an election, in a virtual dead heat.

"This is seriously competitive," said Cynthia Arnson, director of the Americas program at the Woodrow Wilson Center in Washington. "I would say it's the first time since Chavez was elected that the accumulated learning experience of the opposition and the accumulated problems of the country have brought the race to a place where it's almost too close to call."

The election is almost certainly being watched closely by Iran, which has found an ally in Venezuela, and myriad small countries in Latin America that have received aid in return for support against Washington.

The outcome is also expected to be tracked by energy markets. Venezuela recently surpassed Saudi Arabia as the country with the biggest certified oil reserves, and Chavez is considered a price hawk within OPEC, an organization Venezuela helped found.

Capriles campaign officials said they believed that the large number of undecided voters in some polls would break for the challenger at the ballot box, leading to Chavez's defeat. It is a bold prediction that is buttressed by the opposition's recent revival after years of uninspired campaigning and by the disenchantment many Venezuelans express to pollsters about decaying infrastructure, rampant violent crime, and shoddy services.

But the president's advantage is undeniable. A state media apparatus has provided fawning coverage of the campaign, and his administration has provided prospective voters with gifts ranging from refrigerators to new apartments.

"He has given love and made it easy for the people, the only president we have had who has had anything to do with the poor," said Soleña Arcila, a nurse who came out Thursday for Chavez's last preelection speech. "Chavez will be here forever."

Still, there are signs that things are not as rosy for the president as they have been in the past. Political analysts say Chavez's campaign has been lackluster, and nagging questions remain about his health, which is still a state secret.

The Venezuela the two men are battling for is a country awash in historic oil earnings but one that has the feel of having missed out on the democratic awakening and economic boom that is modernizing much of Latin America.