Governor's race aside, Tuesday looks like Pa. GOP's night

WASHINGTON - Democrats are looking to Pennsylvania on Tuesday for a glimmer of joy amid an Election Day otherwise showing promise for Republicans.

Though independent analysts, Democrats (publicly), and even Republicans (privately) like Tom Wolf's odds of ousting Gov. Corbett on Tuesday, Democrats are forecast to mostly struggle otherwise.

A Wolf win would give his party a rare gain against a backdrop of President Obama's tumbling poll numbers, anxiety over Ebola and the Islamic State, a muddled economic recovery, and general disgust with politicians everywhere.

Ironically, given the disdain toward most public officials, little else is expected to change locally Tuesday when it comes to representatives in Washington or Harrisburg.

"We're looking at basically a status quo election," aside from the governor's race, said Terry Madonna, the Franklin and Marshall College political scientist and pollster.

Republicans are expected to keep the 13 congressional seats they already hold in Pennsylvania (leaving five to Democrats), and to retain their hold on the Pennsylvania legislature - potentially presenting a major hurdle to Wolf should he win.

Nationally, Republicans appear ascendant: They are expected to expand their majority in the House, have high hopes of taking control of the Senate, and could gain control of more state legislatures across the country.

In Harrisburg, Republicans need only concern themselves with keeping control. Democrats' biggest hope for the state House is to pick up a handful of seats. Their gains would likely come from competitive seats in the Philadelphia suburbs.

Democrats have talked up their chances of taking the state Senate - currently divided 27-23 for the GOP. With few competitive districts, Christopher Borick of Muhlenberg College said Democrats would have to win all of the handful in play.

"It doesn't look like the type of year where you have a big wave in either direction," he said, "and definitely not in the direction of the Democrats."

They could, however, chip away.

Part of the reason for the stability is that Republicans control most of the competitive congressional and state legislative districts, and the national atmosphere is in their favor.

Redistricting, too, has left fewer competitive districts on the map, either for state seats or Congress. Of 203 Pennsylvania state House seats, 105 candidates don't even have an opponent.

Even two congressional retirements are seen as unlikely to provide a shake-up. Voters will pick successors to Republican Jim Gerlach in a Chester County-centered district, and for Democrat Allyson Y. Schwartz in a district that has parts of Montgomery County and Philadelphia.

The winner of the lieutenant governor's race between Republican incumbent Jim Cawley of Bucks County and State Sen. Mike Stack, a Philadelphia Democrat, will be decided by the Corbett-Wolf results. Voters can't split votes for the two posts.

In Philadelphia, voters will be asked to vote on three referenda.

They will decide whether to make permanent the Mayor's Office of Sustainability to deal with environmental issues, and amend the City Charter to do so; to put city prisons under a new management structure; and to authorize the city to borrow money for road and other repairs.