Tom Wolf's paradise lost
Pennsylvanias budget process could have worked in his favor. Now, however, he and the state are in political limbo.
LET'S TAKE a look at Gov. Wolf's political paradise lost.
There was a time when the Democratic businessman could have cemented a place in state history. It was right after he made history by ousting an incumbent.
Riding a wave of goodwill from a campaign well-waged and won, he could have struck a deal with the Republican Legislature to bring the state real change.
Knowing (and he had to know) GOP aversion to big new taxes, he could have traded for some new taxes by agreeing to phase out state liquor stores and put new state and public-school workers into 401(k) retirement plans.
He'd thereby be the first governor to change the counterintuitive booze monopoly while simultaneously reining in public-employee benefits, both policy shifts with populist support.
Think of the bounce for Wolf. Two issues long plaguing the process dealt with at once by a rookie.
Think how the playing field could change: from the land of low expectations we inhabit to a place where popular progress is possible.
But Wolf in March offered an all-or-nothing "holistic" budget to solve every state problem at once, even though every problem didn't happen at once.
When Republicans said no, Wolf stuck to his guns; when they acted to phase out state stores and alter retirement benefits, he vetoed their bills.
Last month, he offered to put some new workers into 401(k)s and lease management of the liquor system to a private contractor while keeping state stores and their workers.
This was seen by Republicans as too little, too late, or both.
(Although one wonders what might have been if the offers had been made in March.)
Why is it so hard to do more on liquor and pensions?
The answer centers on an argument that unions, especially teachers unions, are powerful backers of Democrats, so backing substantial change on either issue politically damages Wolf and his party.
This is bunk.
Wolf didn't need unions to win election. And political parties are increasingly irrelevant as we witness the rise of "outsider" candidates - including, incidentally, Wolf.
Bucking unions would validate his claim that he's "a different kind of leader" and would increase his voter appeal across party lines.
He'd have more money for schools and for deficit-reduction, and a maybe a relationship with the Legislature to work on property taxes, business-tax cuts and more.
It could have been political paradise. Instead, it's partisan hell.
We're one of only two states (Illinois is the other) with no budget. We're apparently nowhere on booze or pensions. School districts, including Philly's, are borrowing to make payroll and keep schools open. Nonprofit groups are cutting staff and social services.
Wolf's tax package failed in the House. The promise of $1 billion in new revenue from a natural-gas severance tax is gone, because of fallen prices and failed politics.
Nobody's talking about property-tax relief or business-tax cuts. And Moody's Investor Services just downgraded our bond outlook to "negative" for what it calls "extreme political gridlock."
Wolf owns this.
He didn't cause the state's fiscal woes. He didn't create the deficit or the state stores or the pension problem.
But it's all his now. It's his state, his budget, his face that'll be on national news about how badly Pennsylvania's run.
So, here's the choice: Continue to regard the Legislature as largely an ugly underworld where mostly demons dwell, or recognize realities required to reach a budget agreement.
Such realities are unchanged since Wolf took office.
Republicans won't back broad-base tax increases and don't like a severance tax because that's where their constituency is.
For Wolf to get anything on taxes or severance means offering substantial change - as in more than already offered - on booze and pensions.
Not sayin' any of this is right, just sayin' that it is.
And unless it happens, expect a maintenance budget leaving the governor, the Legislature and the state in a lackluster limbo.
Email: baerj@phillynews.com
Blog: ph.ly/BaerGrowls
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