Mayoral election is no foregone conclusion
The following is a public-service announcement: Tuesday's Democratic mayoral primary will be held as scheduled. Despite recent polls, commentary, and endorsements that suggest a conclusion has already been reached in this campaign, the sometimes-messy business of democracy requires that at least one ballot be cast before a winner is declared.
The following is a public-service announcement: Tuesday's Democratic mayoral primary will be held as scheduled.
Despite recent polls, commentary, and endorsements that suggest a conclusion has already been reached in this campaign, the sometimes-messy business of democracy requires that at least one ballot be cast before a winner is declared.
"You could be the most popular person in a poll and lose an election," pollster Adam Geller said. "Because if you don't get your voters out, who cares?"
Geller's caution is telling. It was his poll, released last week, that seemed to close the door on a win by any candidate other than James F. Kenney, who led his closest competitors, Lynne M. Abraham and State Sen. Anthony Hardy Williams, by 27 points.
Regardless of those numbers, Kenney, Williams, and Abraham, along with the three remaining Democratic candidates - Doug Oliver, Nelson Diaz, and T. Milton Street Sr. - are treating the waning days of this election as a head-to-head stretch run, all whip and spurs.
They are after voters such as Charles Benjamin Clarke, a Vietnam vet who was honored Saturday at an American Legion event in Southwest Philadelphia before Williams made a few remarks. Clarke, who sees schools and taxes as the top issues, said he still had time to decide.
"It's competitive," said the Marine veteran, who rode his cobalt-blue Harley-Davidson motorcycle in a short parade. "I probably won't make up my mind until going into the homestretch."
Williams thanked Clarke and other Vietnam veterans for their service, noting that some college students had been able to obtain draft deferments.
"Unfortunately, many working-class Americans who did not go to college lost their lives," Williams said. He pledged to help simplify the process for homeless vets to get housing.
Farther east, Kenney struck up conversations with voters at the Italian Market and at Plazapalooza, a festival in the Graduate Hospital neighborhood.
Told that the first issue out of many voters' mouths was education, he said he was not surprised but painted it in broader strokes.
"The number-one issue is poverty, which relates to schools," Kenney said, vowing to improve the city's economy and reduce the number of people in jail.
After a weekend filled with campaign events, there will be phone banks, literature drops, and door-to-door visits by volunteers right up to the closing of the polls at 8 p.m. on Tuesday.
"A massive election-day effort has always been a key component of our game plan," Williams spokesman Albert Butler said Friday. "Over the next several days, we will make contact with, literally, hundreds of thousands of voters, which we find far more predictive of an outcome than a poll of just 600 people."
Kenney's campaign manager, Jane Slusser, said the former city councilman's team had been building its get-out-the-vote effort for months, adding volunteers over time to methodically identify Kenney supporters and make repeated contact with them, all in anticipation of Tuesday.
"We have built up a pretty decent program," she said. "But it doesn't happen overnight."
Kenney will have the luxury of relying on the support of a broad coalition of the city's most powerful labor organizations, including the Philadelphia Federation of Teachers, the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers, and all of the city's municipal unions.
Williams, beyond his own efforts, is banking on support from the carpenters, sheet metal workers, laborers, operating engineers, and transit workers.
Diaz, Abraham, Oliver, and Street all say they have plans in the works to get out their own votes.
Those efforts, however, are overshadowed by the long-held belief that the campaign will end up a two-person contest between Kenney and Williams. Even that dynamic has been upset over the last several weeks by Geller's poll and public endorsements that have gone Kenney's way.
The Geller poll has done the most damage to Williams' perceived prospects, showing him tied for second with Abraham at 15 percent to Kenney's 42 percent. The poll, commissioned by The Inquirer, the Philadelphia Daily News, Philly.com, and NBC10, showed Kenney winning in every section of the city, with overwhelming support from white voters and substantial backing from African Americans.
The poll was followed by Kenney's endorsement by City Council President Darrell L. Clarke, one of the most prominent African American elected officials in the city. In his support for Kenney, Clarke joins a cadre of other important African American political leaders, such as state Rep. Dwight Evans, City Councilwoman Marian B. Tasco, and state Sen. Vincent Hughes. Those endorsements represented a stinging rebuke of Williams, a significant African American leader in his own right.
While the Williams campaign has pushed back on the poll numbers, no one has disputed the view that Kenney, in less than four months, has gone from a long shot to the overwhelming favorite. The speed of that journey has surprised even those in Kenney's camp.
"I think Jim struck a chord," said Saul Shorr, a Philadelphia media consultant who produced an ad campaign for Kenney on behalf of the political action committee Forward Philadelphia. "People, black and white, embraced who he is, a neighborhood kid whose instincts are to help people and the neighborhoods. They also embraced his personal evolution. That he has grown as a person over his life."
Geller's polling suggests the same. Despite an ongoing ad campaign by Williams attacking Kenney for inflammatory quotes made 18 years ago in defense of aggressive policing, Kenney has retained a remarkably favorable rating among voters.
Shorr also gave credit to the black elected officials who have stepped forward on Kenney's behalf.
"These verifiers for Kenney were crucial," he said. "The number of black elected officials who stood up and said, 'This is who we are for,' that matters in a very deep way."
Internal polls done for Forward Philadelphia had Kenney ahead for weeks, but his position strengthened two weeks ago when Williams announced he would dismiss Police Commissioner Charles H. Ramsey, who polls have shown is hugely popular.
Forward Philadelphia's polling routinely asks those surveyed whether anything they had learned in the last week had affected their opinion of a candidate favorably or unfavorably.
The poll just before the Ramsey statement had Williams at a 40-16 favorable-to-unfavorable split. The poll just after was showed a 31-32 split, he said.
That shift was consistent with The Inquirer poll, which Geller said showed Kenney benefiting from Williams' attack on Ramsey.
Larry Ceisler, a media consultant with indirect ties to both the Williams and Kenney campaigns, said he was impressed with Kenney's organization.
"It showed the difference a good campaign makes," he said. "They have done an excellent job in creating the impression that Jim Kenney enjoys broad support and has momentum, and that is now manifested in the polls."
Of course, the Williams campaign sees matters a little differently. Out of fairness, then, he gets the final word.
"I've campaigned across this city for months, talked with thousands of voters, and we're very confident about our chances on election day," Williams said Friday. "What matters in a mayoral election is getting people out to vote, and we are putting together a massive effort to get folks out to vote on Tuesday. That's the only poll that counts, and we are planning to win it."
Tuesday's Primary Election
Polls are open Tuesday
from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. Below are the contests that are
on the ballot.
Statewide
Supreme Court: Three vacancies.
Superior Court: One vacancy.
Commonwealth Court:
One vacancy.
Philadelphia
Mayor: Six candidates in Democratic primary; Republican primary uncontested.
City Council: Two district and seven at-large seats are contested.
Common Pleas Court:
12 judgeships.
Municipal Court: Three judgeships.
City Commissioners: Two of three seats.
Four ballot questions calling for changes in the City Charter.
Montgomery County
Common Pleas Court: Three judgeships.
County Commissioner:
Two seats (Democratic candidates uncontested).
Chester County
Common Pleas Court:
One judgeship.
Delaware County
Common Pleas Court: Three judgeships.
Chester City Mayor:
Two candidates in Democratic primary.
There are no contested county-level races in Bucks County.
Municipal races and ballot questions in various communities are also on
the ballot.
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Tuesday's Primary Election
Polls are open Tuesday
from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. Below are the contests that are
on the ballot.
Statewide
Supreme Court: Three vacancies.
Superior Court: One vacancy.
Commonwealth Court:
One vacancy.
Philadelphia
Mayor: Six candidates in Democratic primary; Republican primary uncontested.
City Council: Two district and seven at-large seats are contested.
Common Pleas Court:
12 judgeships.
Municipal Court: Three judgeships.
City Commissioners: Two of three seats.
Four ballot questions calling for changes in the City Charter.
Montgomery County
Common Pleas Court: Three judgeships.
County Commissioner:
Two seats (Democratic candidates uncontested).
Chester County
Common Pleas Court:
One judgeship.
Delaware County
Common Pleas Court: Three judgeships.
Chester City Mayor:
Two candidates in Democratic primary.
There are no contested county-level races in Bucks County.
Municipal races and ballot questions in various communities are also on
the ballot.
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INSIDE
The Inquirer's endorsements in Tuesday's election. C4EndText