Democratic lead in registered Montco voters widens

Republican leaders called it a fluke.

But the Democratic voter-registration tide continues to rise in Montgomery County, three years after the party first gained a majority in what had been one of Pennsylvania's largest and most enduring Republican power bases.

Nearly 46 percent of the county's registered voters - 244,000 in all - now identify themselves as Democrats, extending the party's registration majority by more than 35,000 voters, according to statistics released March 12 by the county's Voter Services Department.

Contrast that to the GOP's shrinking slice of the pie - down about 31,000 voters from three years ago.

Those numbers have Democrats looking at this fall's local elections as their best shot at wresting county control from their rivals for the first time in history. Republicans, meanwhile, are putting on a good face and hoping for the best.

County GOP Chairman Bob Kerns is not about to throw in the towel just yet.

"Registrations don't vote. People vote," Kerns said. "People will register one way or the other for a lot of different reasons. What matters are the polls, and voters have historically come out to support us."

When Democrats first took the registration edge in Montgomery County in 2008, Republican leaders blamed "Obama-mania." As in much of the nation, the chance to cast a ballot for either the first black or first female presidential candidate drew hundreds of first-time Democratic primary voters to the county's polls. Under Pennsylvania law, in order to vote in that contest, they had to register as Democrats.

GOP leaders predicted at the time that the electoral tides would soon recede and politics would continue as usual.

Montgomery County had long been considered an impenetrable Republican fortress, so much so that local business owners used to register with the party for fear of losing business. GOP registrants once outnumbered Democrats by 2-1, and the state party routinely looked toward Philadelphia's suburban hub as a source of contributions and candidates.

Last year, though, brought evidence that while the Obama high tide had indeed receded in other suburban counties, the shift in Montgomery County may be more enduring.

In the 2010 congressional and gubernatorial races, the pendulum swung back to the right in Bucks and Chester Counties - both of which had gone blue for Obama. But Montgomery County stood in line with true-blue Philadelphia in 2010, giving its votes to losing Democrats Joe Sestak for Senate and Dan Onorato for governor.

Numbers released with the 2010 census, too, show demographic shifts that could bode well for the Democrats. Montgomery County had one of the largest percentage increases in Hispanic population across the state - jumping from about 15,000 in 2000 to 34,000 a decade later. An increase in minority population often spells good news for Democrats, at least in standard political wisdom.

The census also shows some of the county's fastest growth in the municipalities that ring Philadelphia, suggesting more of the city's typically Democratic voters are moving to the suburbs, county planners said.

Another unusual factor, though, has been the fracturing of a long-dominant Republican organization - or so argues its longtime adversary, county Democratic Party Chairman Marcel Groen. For three years, a once-unified county GOP has been plagued by infighting - most notably between Republican County Commissioners Bruce L. Castor Jr. and James Matthews, who have feuded famously and ferociously since taking office in 2008.

"We have some things going on in Montgomery County that I don't think have happened in other places," Groen said. "We spent time building our infrastructure - and we haven't had the infighting."

But don't count out the party of Lincoln and Reagan just yet, said Matthews, who announced earlier this year that he would not seek a fourth term on the county's commissioner board.

Republicans surged in the most recent county races, taking six of seven judicial seats.

In Matthews' estimation, Montgomery County's electoral map is looking more and more like the Keystone State's at large.

The Democrats hold big edges in the county population centers - Lower Merion, Abington, Cheltenham, and Norristown - while Republican voters dominate across outlying areas, including 39 of the 67 municipalities, most of which lie in the northwestern portion of the county.

Moreover, says Matthews, look at how the wind is blowing: Republican Tom Corbett took the governor's mansion last fall with overwhelming support from what Democratic political strategist James Carville once described as the "Alabama" that lies between Pittsburgh and Philadelphia.

"It may be 'Alabama' in between," said Matthews. "But I think people are much more in tune with the 'Alabama' side of things right now."