Michael Smerconish: It's all riding tonight on Sarah Palin

FROM THE GOP Convention: Tonight is the most important night of the Republican National Convention.

Forget last night's satellite address by President Bush and tomorrow's much-anticipated acceptance speech by John McCain. It'll all be on the line this evening, when Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin is set to speak in prime time from the Xcel Energy Center in Minneapolis-St. Paul.

This will be much of America's first real look at McCain's bold/courageous/visceral/crazy pick to be the nation's first female vice president. I can tell you that here in Minnesota, she will receive a hero's welcome.

Countless Philadelphia-area GOPers have told me they're elated over her selection, and I believe them. Although they're not saying so, I suspect many were deflated watching the events in Denver last week and needed a boost. They feel the Big Mo, as Bush 41 once called it, has come back to their party.

But, of course, the support of these delegates was never in doubt. After a week with the Dems in Denver, and now with the Republicans here, I'm reminded that party activists at the conventions represent the ends of the ideological spectrum.

Instead, tell me how Palin's speech tonight is received in the Philadelphia suburbs, and I think I can tell you the name of our next president. I expect her to make an intelligent presentation, to accurately lay claim to a record (limited) of competent public service, to state her political independence and to appear telegenic.

I have no doubt that most Americans will like the former Miss Congeniality personally, but when her views are known, is she really the best selection McCain could have made to expand the tent in an area like ours? I have my doubts.

While anyone would have to admire that she's a pro-life politician who actually walks the walk, I'm perplexed as to how the McCain campaign could pick her and think she'll play in Abington, Merion or West Chester.

Sure, the McCain-Palin combo lets evangelicals vote for the ticket with a smile instead of a scowl, but those voters wouldn't have sat out this race, given the stakes.

No, this election won't be determined by the extremes; it will be settled by the middle, and you have to wonder if Pennsylvania moderates will embrace Palin's passionate pro-life views.

THEN THERE'S her resume.

Is she more knowledgeable than Mitt Romney on the economy? No way.

Stronger on terror than Tom Ridge? Impossible.

Capable of leading on Day One? Nobody could make that case.

How long will it be until somebody says they know Joe Biden, served with Joe Biden, and on credentials, she's no Joe Biden?

Of course, I stand ready - anxious, actually - to be proven incorrect, starting tonight. Among other things, I'll be looking for some sign that she's equipped to deal with the complexities of foreign policy. Or, at the very least, some evidence that her instincts and learning curve will let her make a quick study of political machinations on an international stage.

I hope she shows us whatever spark must have that caused McCain to select her.

And here's what's most important. If it turns out that Palin's political emergence was premature, it isn't her fault - it's McCain's. He picked her, not vice versa. And his selection process and its result could tell us something about his judgment.

After all, it seems that McCain made this all-important decision after a single close encounter. According to published accounts, he met her once before securing the nomination. Then he called her two weeks ago, had what was presumably a positive conversation, and invited her to Arizona, where in his one and only face-to-face interview, he offered her the job.

That indicates a visceral choice on the most important decision a 72-year-old presidential candidate - a cancer survivor - might ever make.

All the more reason that I'll be inside the Xcel Center tonight looking to understand not only who she is, but what could have caused McCain to roll the dice on someone with a thin resume after a vetting process that appears superficial at best.

Sarah, prove me wrong. *

Contact Michael Smerconish on the Web at www.mastalk.com.