Michael Smerconish: 10 ways to know the economy's back

I'VE BEEN waiting for national newspaper headlines like those that were finally delivered on Tuesday.

Wall Street Journal: "Slump over, but pain persists."

USA Today: "Recession over, pain remains."

Finally, good, or at least better, news about the economy.

Those pronouncements came from the National Bureau of Economic Research's Business Cycle Dating Committee. I have no idea what that is, but I pity the secretary who has to answer the telephone. ("Hello and thank you for calling the National. . .") And, quite frankly, I have trouble separating GDP from my GPS.

Which might explain why I'm not relying on the "BCD" Committee to tell me that the recession has ended. I need something more tangible. Results I can see, hear and smell. So I've developed a list of indicators in my world, the world of a suburban white guy, that suggest things have really turned a corner. (Perhaps you have a list of your own.)

The most important on anyone's list? We all know someone who needs a job, as well as someone who wants one. When the folks who want a job can get one, we'll know the country is back on the right track.

Beyond the obvious, here are 10 other things I'm looking for.

1. POSITIVE NEWS. For some time, I've believed that the economy will turn when people start speaking in positive terms - it will be a self-fulfilling prophecy. Too much pessimism has had an all-too-negative impact on the economy. The headlines I quoted might get the ball rolling. If Jim Cramer and the other financial gurus repeat them,

we're really on our way.

2. REAL ESTATE. My wife is in the real-

estate business on the Main Line. My mom likewise in Bucks County. When I hear from either of them that the lower- and moderately priced product in those bellwether 'burbs is moving again, that will be a sign.

3. CHOW TIME. A friend who owns a fine restaurant has been cursing financial guru Suze Orman ever since she advised Americans to save money by eating out less. I've noticed that my friend's parking lot has a few more open spaces than usual, while the Cracker Barrel on I-476 in Plymouth Meeting is going gangbusters.

I'll know things are improving when there are a few more cars in my friend's lot and a few less at Cracker Barrel. (And when my family can no longer get a table without a reservation at the Palm on a Saturday night.)

4. ADVERTISING. Each day at my radio gig, I get a log of the live commercials I'll read in the course of that day's program.

Lately, there have been gaps in it. When those gaps are filled (and less room for stations to run ads touting the virtues of running ads), I'll believe the country is back on track, too.

Similarly, it's not so much the number of magazine subscriptions that gets my attention - we still get a wide variety at our house - it's the thickness of the issues when they arrive. When Philadelphia magazine's girth expands, I'm betting the economy will as well.

5. ARTS. My wife and I like to take our kids to art galleries, often just to look. Two weeks ago, we visited one in New Hope, where the proprietor told me business was way off. I'm thinking that a rise in discretionary spending at places like art galleries will mark a restoration of the economy as well.

6. SPORTS. When the 76ers stop calling my house offering low rates for partial-season ticket plans, I'll know the country is bouncing back, too. (Either that, or the team is winning.)

7. EXPERIENCES. Lately, I've spoken with a number of tutors, instructors and coaches who say the demand for their services has been in decline. Parents can't afford it. So when the market for piano lessons and baseball hitting instructors improves, I'll believe the economy is growing along with it.

8. NOTICE THE UPTICK in resume-padding via online classes and expedited career training? When such resume-building tails off, the opposite will be true of the country's economic standing.

9. WEEKEND WARRIORS. Make a stop at a Home Depot on Saturday. I'm betting you'll encounter a jammed parking lot.

People are taking on projects that they might otherwise have paid a contractor to do. I'll believe the economy has turned a corner when there are fewer cars loading up at the Home Depot on Columbus Boulevard.

10. WE'VE NOTICED that people in our social orbit are entertaining less often. And when they do, we're getting more Evites and less of the fancy invitations we received in the past. Which leads me to believe that when the number of parties and the paper invitations get back to normal, that means the economy has, too.

Listen to Michael Smerconish weekdays 5-9 a.m. on the Big Talker, 1210/AM. Read him Sundays in the Inquirer. Contact him via the Web at www.smerconish.com.