Back Channels: Chesco shapes up as election barometer

Moviegoers have the Kevin Costner film

Swing Vote

to see how an election will turn out. The rest of us have Chester County.

"Chester County is ground zero in the battle for control of the state House," says Shannon Royer, the Republican candidate in the 156th District, one of the county's five competitive state House races. Royer is in a rematch with Barbara McIlvaine Smith, whose 28-vote win in 2006 flipped control of the House to the Democrats.

And the county's influence may not end there. State Sen. Andy Dinniman says he's been telling fellow Democrats that "not only is Pennsylvania the key state in the presidential election, but Chester County is the key to the Keystone State."

The election-year mantra for "change" comes into play here for both parties. Democrats point to a change in numbers - Republicans no longer have a majority of registered voters. The GOP is counting on a changed electorate since the defeats of 2006.

That year, the county that had twice gone for George W. Bush turned on him and the GOP. Two unpopular candidates atop the ticket - U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum and gubernatorial candidate Lynn Swann - didn't help.

"No doubt about it, 2006 was the worst year for Republicans since Watergate," says Royer.

Of course, both sides are optimistic about this year's state House races, which include the Royer-McIlvaine Smith fight, two challenges to Republican incumbents, and two open seats where longtime GOP lawmakers are retiring. And each side believes its presidential candidate will play well.

Republicans still have more registered voters (about 47 percent of the total) compared with about 37 percent for Democrats and 16 percent for independents, but Democratic registration is outpacing the GOP's.

Michele Vaughn, head of the Chester County Democrats, attributes the latest increases to enthusiasm for Barack Obama and voters who have had it with the GOP. "From what I'm hearing from new Democrats, the Republican Party no longer represents their values," Vaughn says.

Carol Palmaccio is counting on 1,000 new Democrats in the 167th to defeat freshman State Rep. Duane Milne, who won in '06 by 144 votes.

"The new groundswell of Democrats is really enthused," she says. "They see light at the end of the tunnel after eight years of Bush."

But Milne sees a different climate for Republicans. "Two years ago, for various reasons, there certainly was almost a national stampede to vote against GOP candidates of any office," he says. "Today, people are much more looking at individual races and candidates."

Democrat Paul Drucker, who is seeking the 157th District seat being vacated by Carole Rubley, argues that the mood might be bigger than individual candidates.

"There's an unease out there, a feeling of insecurity," he says.

He believes that unease will hurt the GOP, and he always tells potential voters that his opponent, Guy Ciarrocchi, directed the state's Bush-Cheney campaign in '04. Drucker says, "Often - often - they say, 'OK, that's enough. That's all I need to hear.' "

Ciarrocchi likes the response he's getting door to door, and says this is a district with a history of ticket-splitting. Two years ago, voters there backed Republicans Rubley and U.S. Rep. Jim Gerlach, while also supporting Democrats Ed Rendell and Bob Casey Jr.

"I don't feel a wave at all," Ciarrocchi says. "This won't be a referendum on party or incumbent. It's going to be candidate-driven."

He can take heart in last year's commissioner and row office races. Democrats had the momentum after wins by Dinniman and McIlvaine Smith in '06, but were still shut out of the courthouse.

Some were surprised by those results, but not county GOP chair Joseph "Skip" Brion. "If you run the right candidates and adhere to the principles of low taxes and fiscal responsibility, the voters will stay with you," he says.

Dinniman has a similar message. To win the county's "vital center," he says, candidates must represent the moderate middle; speak out on open space, fiscal responsibility and educational excellence; and - "very important" - don't be partisan.

That advice obviously goes beyond local races. The presidential candidate who captures Chester County's moderates will likely do well across the country.

"That's why what happens here is a microcosm for what happens nationally," Dinniman says.

That sounds like a constituency tailor-made for John McCain, an independent-minded, often-moderate fiscal hawk who has reached across the aisle on a number of issues. But this is also one of the few Pennsylvania counties where Obama beat Hillary Rodham Clinton in the April primary.

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