Back Channels: Giving the governor a run for his money

Here's the $30 billion question for voters in New Jersey:

After years of waste, corruption, and tax increases by the state government, which candidate for governor do you trust to clean up the mess and be fiscally responsible?

Thus far, the leading contenders are Gov. Corzine, who is seeking reelection, and former U.S. attorney Chris Christie.

Given the times, former Goldman Sachs CEO Corzine should have an edge. But two polls from last month suggest otherwise. And they were taken before he started pushing for more than $900 million in new and increased taxes.

In a Quinnipiac University poll, 56 percent of respondents said they disapprove of the way Corzine is handling the economy. Forty-seven percent said things had become worse in New Jersey under Corzine's leadership. And 53 percent said he didn't deserve to be reelected.

Corzine has seemed economically responsible at times. He put more than $1 billion into a state pension fund that had been underfunded for years. And he forced a government shutdown to secure passage of a 1-percentage-point sales-tax increase he said was necessary.

But that tax hike really wasn't needed, or he wouldn't have given half the revenue away for "property-tax relief," including the rebates that he now wants to cut by half a billion. And his new budget also calls for reducing pension-fund contributions by $895 million.

Corzine thinks boldly but then crumbles under quite predictable opposition. He was right to address the state's $32 billion in debt, but he seemed surprised that taxpayers weren't wild about fixing Trenton's irresponsible borrowing with irresponsible toll increases. This is, after all, the same Trenton that also let billions meant for school construction be wasted.

Corzine can't be blamed for all of Trenton's sins, but by now voters know if he can stand up to the political establishment.

So it's not surprising that Corzine trails the leading Republican contender in two recent polls. Quinnipiac had Christie ahead 46 percent to 37 percent, and Rasmussen Reports had him up 49 to 34.

Christie has no financial background, but his seven years as a U.S. attorney showed he's not afraid to stand up to public officials. In fact, by his count, he's secured convictions of or guilty pleas by more than 130 of them - Republicans and Democrats.

"We sent a strong message that if you put your mind to things, you can get them done," Christie said in an interview.

Having kept his promise to target corruption, Christie says voters can believe him when he says he'll change the way Trenton handles tax money.

For starters, his budget would begin with projected revenue - not an assumption that all programs are worthy of renewed funding. New or expanded programs would have built-in sunset provisions. The state's workforce would be reduced.

Christie would push for an independently elected state auditor. He would appoint a "taxpayer advocate" to monitor purchases. And he would aggressively use the governor's veto powers. "I'm not afraid of a little confrontation," he says.

Unlike the incumbent, Christie says he would not raise taxes in a recession. In fact, he promises to cut income, small-business, and corporate taxes.

Sounds like the last Republican governor, Christie Whitman, whose sweeping tax cuts contributed to the current budget mess. Is Chris Christie more of the same? No, he says, pointing out the flaw in Whitman's budgeting: "You can't cut taxes and at the same time exponentially expand government."

With lower taxes, Christie says, the state would attract businesses and residents - not repel them, as it does now - and that would lead to increased tax revenue.

"We've tried the other path, where we say it doesn't matter what we tax anyone, because we have such great services they'll want to live here," he says. "Well, we have the answer to that. Jobs have left. People have left."

Christie admits that fighting the Legislature and special interests won't be easy, but he thinks voters will back him.

"New Jerseyans are ready to hear this message," Christie says. "They understand that overspending and overborrowing and taxes that are too high make us less competitive with neighboring states.

"And in the aftermath of this spending spree, we no longer have a choice. This is what we have to do to be competitive."

Christie's favorable poll numbers are a nice start, but only that. There's still the GOP primary in June. Last week's questions about an SEC case involving his brother Todd are a sign of attacks to come - and something he'd better have answers for. Plus he must raise enough to fight a multimillionaire governor who used $100 million of his own fortune in two statewide races.

But even that could play in Christie's favor, as voters ask who can clean up the current mess and be fiscally responsible going forward.