We're muddled in the middle

I love it when politicians talk about "the American people" believing this or that, as if we all do and they know it. Years ago, we nicknamed my friend Francie's mother "The Nation" because she was so fond of speaking for it.

Truth is, Americans do agree on a lot of fundamentals. But "the American people" generally means at least 40 percent disagree with you.

If you really want to know what people in America think, you can't find a better place to look than Rasmussen Reports, which takes America's vital signs and then some every day.

The Drudge Report referred to the results of a recent Rasmussen poll as "The Love/Hate Divide," but what struck me was how many people - the honest folks - didn't have a clue either way.

According to Rasmussen, 33 percent of the nation's voters strongly approve of President Obama's performance, and 33 percent strongly disapprove. Liberals are very happy; conservatives are very unhappy. But the folks in the middle who decide elections are neither here nor there. Now that's profound.

When it comes to leadership, 51 percent give Obama good or excellent marks. But 53 percent are convinced that two key elements of the Obama plan - increases in government spending and tax cuts - hurt the economy. A whopping 58 percent (by polling standards, it's a lot) rate the economy as poor (not even fair) and think the country is on the wrong track.

If this were an election year, I'd say the incumbent is in trouble. I'd say that even though he has a lot of personal popularity, the wrong-track numbers and the distrust of his economic policies expose huge vulnerabilities. Because Obama knows this, he has the sometimes annoying (to conservatives) habit of reminding people that the reason they're suffering is not his doing, but his inheritance.

But this is not a case where the question is ever going to be who started the problem. The critical question is going to be: Did Obamanomics help or hurt? Did it save us from a deeper and longer recession, or just create a deficit for our kids to cover? Is unemployment going down or up? If the numbers are bad, Democrats are not going to be able to save the day by saying George Bush started it - even if he did.

Will Obama's stimulus plan work? Will it turn out that he was right to bail out General Motors and AIG? Will allowing the Bush tax cuts for the richest Americans to expire, and increasing taxes on wealthy Americans and some small businesses, improve or depress the economy?

I always laugh when commentators boldly announce that the president's plan will or won't work. How do they know? They don't - and can't. You certainly can make predictions based on theory, history, or experience. But much of what we are facing is literally unprecedented, and a major ingredient in any recovery will be consumer confidence, which is the product of an amalgam of economic and non-economic influences.

As Rasmussen shows, the American people are, as usual, a lot smarter than the pundits. The liberals are happy, the conservatives are unhappy, and the people in the middle aren't sure. It's love and hate at the extremes, but in the middle, it's honest - and legitimate - confusion.