Charles Krauthammer: Winners and losers of 2010
From the season's unluckiest politician to the ballot's catchiest name, here's an early look at the election's highs and lows.
When the election is over, prizes and trophies and hosannas will be issued left and right. But why wait? As a public service, I present an infallibly prescient scorecard of the best and worst of 2010.
Most politically suicidal candidate: Carl Paladino is running in a deep-blue state (New York) with sky-high taxes, yawning deficits, and rampant corruption. The last elected Democratic governor resigned in disgrace, and his successor is so tainted that he dare not run.
So, what does Kamikaze Carl do? Get in a shouting match with a reporter. Level odd insinuation about his opponent's "prowess." Figuring he hasn't veered off message enough, he expounds on homosexuality - and spends three days having to explain and reaffirm before the inevitable apology. He's down by 19 points.
Innocent bystander award: Down-ballot New York Republicans (see above).
Luckiest guy on the planet: Chris Coons of Delaware. He draws the short straw to run against the anointed Republican establishment candidate, Mike Castle, who hadn't lost a statewide election in 12 tries. Good soldier gamely plays sacrificial lamb - then, bingo: Castle stunningly loses the primary. Coons is now up by 18 points.
Unluckiest guy on the planet: Beau Biden (see above). He was groomed for years to inherit his father's seat. After Castle declared, however, the young Biden decided to forgo the race, citing important unfinished business as attorney general. He must now watch Coons walk off with the family jewel.
Most important socio-demographic trend: The rise of the conservative woman. Sarah Palin's influence is the most obvious manifestation. But the bigger story is the coming of age of a whole generation of smart, aggressive Republican women, from the staunchly conservative Nikki Haley (for South Carolina governor) and Sharron Angle (neck-and-neck with Harry Reid in Nevada) to the more moderate varieties of California, where both Carly Fiorina (for Senate) and Meg Whitman (for governor) are within striking distance in a highly blue, deeply green state. They represent an immense constituency that establishment feminism forgot - or disdained.
Most misrepresented socio-demographic trend: Conventional wisdom is that the election is being driven by anger and blind anti-incumbent fervor. Nonsense. Overwhelmingly, it is Democratic incumbents who are under siege. This is a national revolt against the Democratic governance of the last two years.
One must understand that "anger" is the explanation du jour when Republicans win big. 1994, for example, was dubbed the Year of the Angry White Male - though there was not a scintilla of polling evidence supporting that.
Of course the electorate is angry this time around. But it is not inchoate, irrational anger - a "temper tantrum," as ABC News anchor Peter Jennings called the 1994 Republican sweep - but a highly pointed, perfectly rational anger at the ideological overreach and incompetence of the governing Democrats.
Rising star: Marco Rubio. The soon-to-be senator from Florida has the young-Obama ingredients - smart, inspirational, minority (Cuban-American) - for a meteoric rise.
Fastest-falling star: Gov. Charlie Crist of Florida. Facing disaster in the Republican primary against Rubio, he becomes an independent, flip-flops on one issue after another, and is now running about 16 points behind. Just two years ago, there was talk of him as a Republican vice presidential candidate. Today he's Nowhere Man.
Most shameless attack campaign (national): President Obama's suggesting that the U.S. Chamber of Commerce is secretly using foreign money to fund its campaign ads. There's not a shred of evidence that this is true. When Bob Schieffer asked David Axelrod for evidence, he responded "Well, do you have any evidence that it's not, Bob?"
Most shameless campaign ad (local): Category canceled; too many entries.
Most irresistible name: New Hampshire Republican senatorial primary candidate Ovide Lamontagne. Sounds like a French-Greek poet declaiming in the streets of Nashua. Tragically, he lost. Ovide, we hardly knew ye.