Analyzing the Bernard Hopkins vs. Karo Murat light-heavyweight fight
Boxing writer Bernard Fernandez gives a scouting report on the strengths and weaknesses of each fighter.
Karo Murat
Strengths: Although he says his first boxing role model "Prince" Naseem Hamed, whose winging-shots-from-any-angle style was hardly conventional, Murat fits the mold of most European fighters, which is to say he is very traditional and orthodox, coming forward with his hands held high and punching by the numbers. That might not be construed as a strength in some quarters, but it also means that the former European super middleweight titlist has no quirks that an experienced fighter like Hopkins can exploit. And don't forget that nearly 19-year age difference.
Weaknesses: Against the two highest-profile opponents on his professional résumé, Nathan Cleverly and Gabriel Campillo, Murat came up short. He was stopped in 11 rounds by the European light- heavyweight champ and future WBO ruler Cleverly in 2010, and drew with former WBA 175-pound titlist Campillo in 2011. A prime Hopkins, or close to it, is a step up from either of those guys. Murat also might have some jitters about fighting in the United States for the first time.
How he can win: Like so many former Hopkins opponents, Murat has to be hoping, maybe even expecting, that the ageless wonder's old bones suddenly get creaky. It hasn't really happened yet, but nobody, not even Hopkins, is forever immune to the natural laws of diminishing returns. And with so many high-profile fights having ended recently with controversial decisions, don't discount the possibility of the champion being dethroned by the stroke of a pencil.
Bernard Hopkins
Strengths: Maybe he doesn't really have the greatest defense since the 1985 Chicago Bears, but Hopkins is as difficult to catch with a clean shot as a jackrabbit on Red Bull. In a pro career dating back to 1988, he's never been stopped or even taken major punishment in any fight. "I got the Georgie Benton shoulder roll," Hopkins said, laughing. "Some people think Floyd Mayweather invented that." And while not a particularly devastating puncher [no knockout victories in 13 bouts dating back to 2004], B-Hop can still inflict accumulated damage with a varied, unpredictable offense.
Weaknesses: Did we mention he's nearly 49? Even Hall of Fame pitcher Nolan Ryan lost some heat off his fastball in his late 40s. Hopkins' foot speed has never been exceptional, but he has quite a bit of mobility in tight spaces, like wondrous quarterback Peyton Manning stepping up in the pocket to avoid the rush. If Hopkins' legs begin to fail him, the relentless encroachment of Father Time can do him in as much or more than Murat ever could.
The pick
Murat is an 8-1 underdog with justification. At his advanced age, Hopkins would have a tougher time of it against such elite light-heavyweights as, say, Sergey Kovalev or Adonis Stevenson, or super-middleweight champ Andre Ward if he moves up. Murat figures to be more of a pop quiz than a final exam. Hopkins by fairly wide unanimous decision.
Agenda
Who: Bernard Hopkins (52-6-2, 32 KOs) vs. Germany's Karo Murat (25-1-1, 15 KOs)
What: Hopkins is defending his IBF light-heavyweight title
When: Saturday, 9 p.m.
Where: Boardwalk Hall, Atlantic City
TV: Showtime