Despite swoon, Villanova still likely to make NCAA tournament

Villanova fans and foes alike were burning up Internet chat sites Wednesday to discuss the Wildcats' collapse in the first round of the Big East Conference tournament, with a common theme being that the team doesn't deserve to be in the NCAA tournament after losing five straight and seven of its last nine games.

Yes, that could be a concern for the Wildcats, who blew a 16-point lead and were upset Tuesday night by South Florida, as they anxiously await Selection Sunday.

But it probably won't be. The Wildcats most likely are still in the NCAA mix.

Jerry Palm of CollegeRPI.com said that in his 18 years of predicting the bracket, he has seen teams enter the tournament on a down note, losing six of seven, but never on a five-game losing streak.

"Usually if you have that kind of finish, you weren't that good to begin with," Palm said Wednesday in a telephone interview. "But in Villanova's case, they're still a top-50 [Ratings Percentage Index team] despite their finish because they were really good earlier in the year."

How a team finished its season is no longer a consideration for the committee that selects the field for the NCAA Division I men's basketball tournament. But that provision can still be applied by individual members in determining which teams earn a spot in the field or are knocked out.

"For a period of time, we had the last 10 or 12 games [of teams] on nitty-gritty sheets," Ohio State athletic director Gene Smith, chairman of the NCAA Division I men's basketball committee, said in a teleconference Wednesday.

"We decided a couple of years ago to eliminate that consideration. We leave that to each individual committee member to determine if that's an important criteria for them.

"It's not an important criteria for the entire committee that we focus on like we did for that short period of time. Each committee member takes it into consideration in their own way."

The Wildcats' NCAA seeding slipped Wednesday to No. 9 or No. 11, depending on which Internet bracket master you follow.

Palm has the Wildcats as a ninth seed in Tulsa, Okla., playing Florida State. Joe Lunardi, the ESPN bracketologist, puts them at 11th going to Tucson, Ariz., for a game against Xavier.

Considering that they probably were a No. 2 or 3 seed when they were 16-1 on Jan. 15, the Wildcats have taken a major tumble. They haven't won since Feb. 19 at DePaul, and their confidence, as shown in their second-half swoon against South Florida, has disappeared.

Villanova coach Jay Wright said he hadn't focused on his team's NCAA status but admitted a little anxiety about it after the USF stunner.

"I know this sounds bizarre, but I don't know where we stand with any of that," he said. "I will find out [Wednesday], but I would say after this, there is a little concern, and I just have to look at the situation."

Palm said the former emphasis on the last 10 or 12 games by the committee was more for seeding purposes than to eliminate the last few teams. That became more of a nonfactor because of how conference schedules were drawn up, with some tougher later games for some teams.

"Villanova was in a tough stretch," he said. "It's not like they were losing to South Florida every night. They've lost seven of nine, but five of those teams were really good, four of them one or two seeds. With a stretch like this, you're going to have a rough time."

Lunardi, writing Wednesday on ESPN.com, agreed.

"The Wildcats, even while losing 10 of 15 games, have gone 3-7 against tournament teams in that span," Lunardi said. "And there will be plenty of teams in this year's field with a similarly mediocre profile. Villanova's seed is, and should be, very much in doubt, but its selection . . . is not."

Yarou update. Sophomore center Mouphtaou Yarou was found to have a bruised right shoulder and bruised ribs, the result of a nasty fall he took late in the first half Tuesday night. A team spokesman said Yarou, who did not return after the fall, would be evaluated again on Friday.

Villanova's statistics ...

      During five-game losing streak    Before the streak began

 Points                   64.6                  74.2

Points allowed             74.6                   63.9

FG pct.                   39.9                   44.7

Three-point pct.         32.5                   35.5

Free throw pct.            68.8                   76.8

Def. FG pct.               47.2                   39.5

Avg. rebound margin      -4.8                  +6.4

Villanova's opponents have made 95 free throws during the five-game losing streak, while the Wildcats have attempted 93.

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